Market Roundup
• UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov): 2.1%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous.
• UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): 1.1%, 0.2% forecast, 1.3% previous.
• UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Nov): 0.1%, -0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous.
• UK Trade Balance (Nov): -23.71B, -20.30B forecast, -24.17B previous.
• UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Nov): -11.46B, -11.81B previous.
• UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov): 2.3%, -0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous.
• UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Nov): 2.1%, -0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous.
• UK Construction Output (MoM) (Nov): -1.3%, -0.3% forecast, -1.2% previous.
• UK Construction Output (YoY) (Nov): -1.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.9% previous.
• UK GDP (YoY) (Nov): 1.4%, 1.1% forecast, 1.1% previous.
• UK Index of Services: 0.2%, 0.0% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•French CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous.
•French HICP (MoM) (Dec): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous.
•French CPI NSA (MoM) (Dec): 0.10%, 0.10% previous.
•French CPI NSA (YoY) (Dec): 0.80%, 0.80% previous.
•French HICP (YoY) (Dec): 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 0.8% previous.
•French Inflation (YoY) (Dec): 0.70%, 0.90% previous.
• French CPI (YoY) (Dec): 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.9% previous.
• Italian Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov): 1.4%, -0.6% forecast, -0.2% previous.
• Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): 1.5%, 0.6% forecast, -1.0% previous.
• Italian Trade Balance (Nov): 5.078B, 5.220B forecast, 4.183B previous.
•Trade Balance (Nov): 9.9B, 14.8B forecast, 17.9B previous.
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): 0.7%, 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan): -1.6 forecast, -10.2 previous.
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 215K forecast, 208K previous.
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•13:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan): 0.80 forecast, -3.90 previous.
•13:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Jan): 12.9 previous.
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,890K forecast, 1,914K previous.
•13:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) (Nov): 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•13:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (Nov): -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Nov): -1.1% forecast, -1.0% previous.
•13:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Jan): 41.6 previous.
•13:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Jan): 5.0 previous.
•13:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jan): 43.60 previous.
•13:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Jan): 30.30 previous.
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg: 211.75K previous.
•13:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) (Nov): 3.8% previous.
•13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) (Nov): 0.3% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:35 FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•14:30 Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•17:40 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as markets set aside concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and shifted their focus to economic data.The dollar was knocked back at the start of the week after the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called out the Trump administration's decision to subpoena him, saying it amounted to intimidating the Fed into delivering easier monetary policy. The U.S. dollar was steady against other major currencies on Thursday. It was held at 158.35 against the yen, roughly unchanged from levels late on Wednesday, having dropped to an overnight low of 158.095. The euro eased to $1.1610. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1688(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1730(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1623(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1601(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against dollar on Thursday after UK economic data showed the economy grew more strongly than expected in November, but failed to affect the policy rate outlook.Britain's economy grew more strongly than expected in November, boosted by the return to full production at Jaguar Land Rover after a cyberattack which hit the carmaker and its suppliers.Gross domestic product expanded by 0.3% on the month - the fastest growth since June - after a drop of 0.1% in October, official data showed on Thursday. The pound was down 0.05% at $1.3443. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3499(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3566(Jan 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3461(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Thursday as geopolitical tensions weighed on global risk sentiment, while investors continued to assess a RBA policy outlook.U.S. President Donald Trump toned down warnings of strikes on Iran over its civil unrest, even as Washington withdrew some personnel from Middle East bases after Iran warned it would target U.S. bases if attacked.The market currently assigns a 27% probability to a February quarter-point rate hike by the Reserve Bank, increasing to 76% by May. Australia’s consumer inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.6% in January 2025 from 4.7% previously, indicating households still expect elevated price pressures. Focus now shifts to Q4 CPI later this month, while next week’s December jobs report is also expected to offer additional insights. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6712(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6754(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6678(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6654(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher, but gains were capped as traders remained wary of intervention, with election risks stoking fears of more fiscal stimulus .Takaichi’s plan to dissolve the lower house and call a snap election has fueled speculation, triggering a recent selloff in the yen and Japanese government bonds.Early election fears have raised fiscal concerns over Japan’s heavy debt, pushing the yen toward intervention levels and complicating the Bank of Japan’s rate outlook.Earlier this week, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed concerns over the yen’s “one-sided depreciation” during a bilateral meeting.The yen has fallen nearly 5% against the dollar since Sanae Takaichi became prime minister in October, as investors worry about her spending plans. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.12(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.42(SMA20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.01 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European markets reached fresh record highs Thursday, buoyed by solid earnings across sectors, particularly technology and financials, as steady economic data pointed to regional strength.
At (GMT 12:18),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices slid more than 3% on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump said killings of protesters in Iran had ended, easing fears of military action and potential supply disruptions.
Brent futures were down $2.19, or 3.3%, at $64.33 a barrel by 1221 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude retreated by $2.06, or 3.3%, to $59.96, having earlier lost as much as 4.6%.
Gold prices steadied on Thursday after sliding nearly 1% earlier, as concerns over President Trump’s focus on Greenland underpinned the market while investors weighed developments in Iran.
Spot gold was steady at $4,619.54 per ounce, as of 1200 GMT. U.S. gold futures for February delivery fell 0.3% to $4,623.80.
