Market Roundup
• UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Dec): 16.908B, 9.516B previous.
•UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Dec): -11.58B, -13.40B forecast, -10.94B previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 4.3% forecast, 3.8% previous.
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 209K forecast, 198K previous.
•13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec): -0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•13:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q3): 2.90% forecast, 2.60% previous.
•13:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3): 3.7% forecast, 2.1% previous.
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,884K previous.
•13:30 US US Real Consumer Spending (Q3): 3.5% forecast, 2.5% previous.
•13:30 US US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3): 4.4% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•13:30 US US PCE Prices (Q3): 2.8%, 2.1% previous.
•13:30 US US GDP Sales (Q3): 4.6%, 7.5% previous.
•13:30 US US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 205.00K previous.
•15:00 US US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•15:00 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov): 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous.
•15:00 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov): 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•15:00 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov): 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous.
•15:00 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov): 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Thursday as dollar dipped ahead of key economic data, as the so‑called ‘Sell America’ trade faded after President Donald Trump dropped tariff threats and ruled out seizing Greenland by force.The greenback recovered versus the euro on Wednesday on Trump’s remarks, after losing a bit less than 1% between Monday and Tuesday.Trump’s threat to levy tariffs on allied nations resisting his ambition to control Greenland had spooked markets, triggering a broad selloff of U.S. assets. Still, some analysts said there was little evidence of a real move out of the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1732(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1806(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1701(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1666(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Thursday as recent economic data painted a mixed picture, bringing the Bank of England rate outlook back into focus.Investor attention shifted to the state of the economy after geopolitics dominated earlier in the week, as the prospect of a U.S.-Europe trade war unsettled markets. Trump on Wednesday stepped back from imposing tariffs on U.S.-bound exports from eight European countries following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, during which they reached the framework of a deal for Greenland's future. Earlier this week data showed Britain's jobs market weakened, potentially easing the BoE's worries about persistent inflation pressures . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3496(Jan 12th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3370(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3331(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hit 15-month high on Thursday as strong Australian jobs data boosted RBA rate hike expectations .Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level since May last year, from 4.3%.Net employment jumped by 65,200 in December from November, when it dropped a revised 28,700. That was way above market forecasts of a 30,000 gain, while full-time jobs rebounded by 54,800. The participation rate ticked up to 66.7%, from 66.6%, while hours worked rose 0.4% to a record of over 2 billion hours.Fourth-quarter inflation figures due next Wednesday look set to make or break the case of a February hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6807(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6831(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6760(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6711SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as investors awaited BoJ meeting for policy cues.The BoJ is scheduled to announce its decision on Friday and is expected to maintain the status quo after raising the overnight interest rate to 0.75%, or the highest in 30 years in December.Investors will scrutinize Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks during the post-decision press conference for cues about the timing of the next rate hike.The Bank of Japan is likely to lift its growth outlook on Friday and hint at further rate hikes as yen weakness and strong wage growth prospects fuel inflation concerns.Markets will also watch Ueda’s post-meeting press conference for policy cues, especially on how the BOJ balances curbing yen weakness while limiting further bond yield rises. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.49(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.43(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.97 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rebounded sharply on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned tariff threats linked to Greenland and ruled out using force to seize the autonomous territory, lifting risk sentiment and boosting major European equity indexes.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.41 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.02 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 1.05 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, snapping a three-session rally to record highs, as easing Greenland-related tensions lifted risk appetite and diminishing expectations of near-term U.S. rate cuts added pressure on bullion.
Spot gold eased 0.2% to $4,825.22 per ounce, as of 1201 GMT, after falling nearly 1% earlier in the session.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery lost 0.2% to $4,827.80 per ounce.
Oil prices fell on Thursday, giving back earlier gains as Trump eased Greenland and Iran threats and investors weighed supply-demand outlook.
Brent crude was down $1.25 cents, or 1.92%, at $63.99 a barrel at 1301 GMT. West Texas Intermediate for March declined $1.24 cents, or 2.05%, to $59.38 a barrel.
