Market Roundup
•German Jan PPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast,-1.2% previous
•German Jan PPI (YoY) -4.4%,-6.6% forecast-8.6% previous
•German Jan Industrial Production (MoM) 1.0% 0.5% forecast,-1.6% previous
•French Jan Exports 48.8B,50.2B previous
•French Jan French Imports 56.2B,57.0B previous
•French Jan French Current Account -1.00B,-0.70B previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4)0.0%,0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4)0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q4)1.2%,1.3% forecast,1.3% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q4)0.1%,0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 Canada Feb Part Time Employment Change 48.9K previous
•13:30 Canada Feb Full Employment Change -11.6K previous
•13:30 Canada Feb Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.6% previous
•13:30 US Feb Private Nonfarm Payrolls 160K forecast,317K previous
•13:30 US Feb Nonfarm Payrolls 198K forecast,353K previous
•13:30 US Feb Manufacturing Payrolls 10K forecast,23K previous
•13:30 US Feb Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.3% previous
• 13:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q4)80.2% forecast,79.7% previous
•13:30 US Feb Government Payrolls 36.0K previous
• 13:30 Canada Feb Unemployment Rate 5.8% forecast,5.7% previous
• 13:30 Canada Feb Participation Rate 65.3% previous
•13:30 US Feb Average Weekly Hours 34.3 forecast,34.1 previous
•13:30 US Feb Unemployment Rate 3.7% forecast,3.7% previous
•13:30 US Feb Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 4.4% forecast,4.5% previous
•13:30 US Feb Participation Rate 62.5% previous
•13:30 US Feb U6 Unemployment Rate 7.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Feb Employment Change 21.1K forecast,37.3K previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 506 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 629 previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased slightly against the dollar on Friday after the European Central Bank held interest rates steady and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that easing was likely in 2024 if inflation behaved. ECB left its policy rate at a record high, it took a first, small step towards lowering it, saying inflation was easing faster than it anticipated only a few months ago. In the U.S. Powell on Wednesday testified before the House Financial Services Committee, saying rate reductions would likely be appropriate this year if the economy evolves broadly as expected" and once officials gained more confidence in inflation's steady decline. The common currency fell 0.12% to $1.0932 after hitting an almost two-month high of $1.0956.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0957(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0971(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0924(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0880(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday dollar dipped ahead of the release of key U.S. jobs data later in the day that could influence the Fed's rate trajectory. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month after surging 353,000 in January, according to a survey of economists. Estimates ranged from 125,000 to 286,000. Payrolls increased 333,000 in December. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% for the fourth consecutive month and the annual increase in wages only slowing marginally. The labor market is supporting the economy, which is outperforming its global peers. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2837(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2862 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2811 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2745(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded more confident about cutting interest rates in coming months. Speaking on Thursday, Powell said the Fed was not far from having the confidence it needed to cut rates. Currencies typically weaken if central banks lower interest rates.The dollar index edged 0.039% lower to 102.72, heading for its sharpest one-week decline since mid-December, down around 1% this week against a basket of six peers.The key data on Friday is the U.S. job report that could confirm or confound market expectations for a U.S. cut by June .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8845 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8904 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8752(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8731(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined on Friday as yen rose after reports showed that the Bank of Japan is warming to the idea of raising interest rates and considering a new quantitative monetary policy framework.Jiji news agency reported the BoJ is considering a framework that will show the outlook for upcoming government bond buying amounts. The yen rose 0.74% against the dollar to 146.95 yen, its highest level since early February. It is up 2% on the week, its strongest weekly percentage rise since mid July . Investors now await the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due later on Friday, with expectations for job growth to slow in February. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.09(Daily high ),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.58 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.94(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.74(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks struggled for direction on Friday as market focus shifted U.S. jobs report due later in the day.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.51 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.31 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.06 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit record highs for a fourth consecutive session on Friday on growing speculations over June interest rate cuts ahead of key U.S. jobs data due later in the day.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,168.28 per ounce as of 1057 GMT, while U.S. gold futures added 0.5% to $2,175.50.
Oil prices were little changed on the day on Friday, as investors digested hints of looming interest rate cuts in the United States and Europe.
Brent crude futures were up 0.24%, or 20 cents, at $83.16 a barrel by 1018 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.28%, or 22 cents, to $79.15.
