Market Roundup
• German Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% ,0.0%forecast, 1.1%previous
•German Import Price Index (YoY) (Feb) 3.6%, 3.1% previous
•German Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 4.9% ,4.0% previous
•German Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.8%, 0.0%forecast, 0.7% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.2%, 0.5% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.2%, 2.5% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.3%, 2.4% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.4% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.3%, 2.3% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% ,0.6% previous
• German North Rhine Westphalia CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 1.9% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 1.9%, 1.9% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.6% ,0.3% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.5%, 2.3% previous
•Spanish Current account (Jan) 1.20B ,1.67B previous
•UK M3 Money Supply (Feb) 3,119.0B, 3,112.6B previous
•UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Feb) 0.2%, 1.1% forecast, 1.4% previous
•UK Mortgage Approvals (Feb) 65.48K, 66.00K forecast, 66.04K previous
•UK Mortgage Lending (Feb) 3.29B, 4.23B previous
•UK Net Lending to Individuals (Feb) 4.600B, 4.900B forecast, 5.947B previous
• Italian CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% ,0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Italian CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.0%, 1.6% forecast, 1.6% previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% ,0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•German HICP (YoY) (Mar) 2.3%, 2.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
•German HICP (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% , 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.226% previous
•13:30 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.300% previous
•13:30 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.282% previous
•13:45 USD Chicago PMI (Mar) 45. 5forecast 45.5 previous
•14:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Mar) -8.3 previous
•15:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction 4.190% previous
•15:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction 4.085% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the dollar on Monday as investors weighed the potential effects of upcoming U.S. trade tariffs. On Sunday, President Donald Trump revealed that his planned reciprocal tariffs would target all countries, not just a few with the largest trade imbalances. Trump is set to announce a major tariff plan on Wednesday, dubbed "Liberation Day." Alongside tariffs on aluminum, steel, and autos, he has already raised tariffs on all goods from China. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Monday that the looming U.S. tariffs would force Europe to take greater control of its future, emphasizing the impact of tariffs and retaliatory measures on the region’s economic growth. The euro was down at $1.0812. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0854(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0969(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0741(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0661(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Monday as market participants await President Trump's upcoming announcement on reciprocal tariffs this Wednesday. Markets await details of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, with Trump stating on Sunday that all countries will be affected. Trump said on Friday he was open to making deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs, but negotiations would only begin after April 2.Britain is feeling the effects of Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, which took effect this month, along with upcoming tariffs on auto imports to the U.S. set to begin on April 3.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3007(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3052(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2849(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2818(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors were cautious ahead of an impending U.S. announcement on tariffs and a central bank meeting in Australia that could provide hints on the future direction of interest rates. Trump said late on Sunday that the reciprocal tariffs set to be announced on Wednesday would essentially affect all countries, quashing market hopes that the levies would be limited.On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide on its latest policy move. While it is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 4.1%, some analysts are anticipating a softening of its hawkish tone, which could signal the possibility of a rate cut in May. At GMT 12:29, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.62% to $0.6243. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6259(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6312(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6223(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6190(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar fell on Monday as demand for the safe-haven yen rose amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs could fuel inflation and slow economic growth. Markets are anxious ahead of a new round of reciprocal tariffs set to be announced by the White House on Wednesday. While specific details are still unclear, Trump stated late Sunday that tariffs would target essentially all countries this week. On Friday, he suggested he was open to negotiating deals with countries seeking to avoid tariffs, but reports over the weekend indicated he was urging his advisers to take a more aggressive stance. The yen was up as much as 0.35% at 149.30 per U.S. dollar at one point on Monday, and was last 0.2% stronger at 149.50. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.10(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.12(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.39(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.37(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell to a two-month low in early Monday trading, as cautious investors pulled back from risky assets following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that tariffs would apply to all countries, heightening concerns about a global economic slowdown.
At GMT (12:46) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.29 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.70percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.71 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices soared to a record high above $3,100 per ounce on Monday, driven by concerns over potential inflation from U.S. tariffs, positioning the safe-haven asset for its strongest quarter since 1986.
Spot gold jumped 1.1% to $3,117.43 per ounce by 0935 GMT, having hit a record $3,128.06 earlier. U.S. gold futures were up 1.1% to $3,149.60.
Oil prices remained steady on Monday as investors took a cautious approach, awaiting further developments after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers and warned Iran of potential military action if it failed to reach a deal on its nuclear program.
Brent crude futures climbed 11 cents, or 0.15%, to $72.87 a barrel by 1125 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 8 cents, or 0.12%, to $69.44 a barrel. Front-month Brent , trading at $74.06, expires later on Monday.
