Market Roundup
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3): -0.3%, -0.7% forecast, -1.1% previous.
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q3): 0.7%, 3.0% previous.
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Sep): 0.2%, 0.0% forecast, -0.5% previous.
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Sep): 1.3%, 1.2% forecast, 1.1% previous.
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q3): 1.3%, 1.3% forecast, 1.4% previous.
•UK GDP (MoM) (Sep): -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous.
•UK GDP (YoY) (Sep): 1.1%, 1.4% forecast, 1.2% previous.
•UK Index of Services: 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep): -2.0%, -0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep): -2.5%, -1.2% forecast, -0.5% previous.
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep): -1.7%, -0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous.
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Sep): -2.2%, -0.8% forecast, -0.7% previous.
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Sep): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•UK Trade Balance (Sep): -18.88B, -20.80B forecast, -19.53B previous.
•Swiss PPI (MoM) (Oct) -0.3%, -0.1% forecast,-0.2% previous.
•Swiss PPI (YoY) (Oct) -1.7%, -1.8% previous.
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%,0.7% forecast,-1.1% previous.
•EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 1.2%, 2.1% forecast,1.2% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.875% previous.
•16:30 US 8-Weeks Bill Auction 3.815% previous.
• 17:00 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.000M forecast,5.202M previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Thursday as dollar eased after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a deal to end the government shutdown. Late on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed legislation to end the government shutdown, paving the way for federal agencies to resume collecting data crucial for policymaking. Trump's signature on the bill on Wednesday will extend federal government funding through January 30, bringing furloughed workers back to their jobs and allowing the release of delayed major economic data that had clouded the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy outlook.September's jobs report will likely be the first to be released in the days to come. After private surveys signalled cracks in the labour market, investors expect an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1636(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1682(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1584(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1534 (38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling initially slipped but recovered ground against the dollar on Thursday as weaker dollar off set downbeat UK GDP data. Britain’s economy showed minimal growth in the third quarter, weighed down by a September cyberattack on Jaguar LandThe economy grew 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025, the Office for National Statistics said, slowing from growth of 0.3% in the second quarter.Investors raised bets on a Bank of England rate cut next month to about 82%, up from 60% earlier this week, market data showed.The data is unlikely to influence discussions surrounding Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ November 26 budget, as the economy continues to expand sluggishly despite the government’s pledge to “kickstart” growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Thursday after robust employment data dampened expectations of near-term interest rate cuts. Employment surged in October, led by strong full-time hiring, which lowered the unemployment rate from a four-year high and bolstered the view that the RBA’s easing cycle may be nearing its end.According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, net employment rose by 42,200 in October, up from 12,700 in September, far surpassing market forecasts of a 20,000 increase. Full-time jobs jumped by 55,300, while the participation rate held steady at 67% and total hours worked rose 0.5%.Crucially, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% from 4.5%, its highest level since November 2021. Following the data, markets sharply pared back expectations of further RBA policy easing, with the oddsof a May rate cut falling to 25% from nearly 70% before the release. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6543(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6594 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6473(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6440(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Thursday as yen recovered some ground on expectations of Japanese intervention risks. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a fresh verbal warning about the yen’s weakness on Wednesday as it neared 155 per dollar, highlighting “one-sided and rapid movements” in the foreign exchange market.A weak yen could force the BOJ's hand, leading to a hike next month. Traders see a 24% chance of a quarter-point increase to the key rate in December, rising to 46% odds for a hike by January. Japan's yen has come under renewed pressure as the country's new premier has been pushing the central bank to go slow on further rate rises.The Japanese yen has already fallen below levels that previously triggered Tokyo's intervention and is now approaching 155 per dollar, a level that many Japanese companies consider a critical pain point.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European shares rose slightly on Thursday as investors turned their attention to key U.S. economic data after the nation ended its longest government shutdown, though losses in Siemens following a disappointing earnings report capped gains.
At (GMT 12:08),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.78 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.55 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.34 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Thursday to their highest level in over three weeks, supported by expectations that the U.S. government’s reopening would boost debt levels.
Spot gold gained 0.7% to $4,229.19 per ounce, as of 1147 GMT, its highest since October 21. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5% to $4,234.10 per ounce.
Oil prices inched higher on Thursday, pausing after sharp losses in the previous session, as investors balanced worries over global oversupply against the potential impact of upcoming sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil.
Brent crude futures rose 32 cents to $63.03 a barrel by 1130 GMT, after dropping 3.8% a day earlier. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 28 cents to $77 a barrel, after a decline of 4.2% on Wednesday.
