•German Jun PPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•UK Jun Retail Sales (MoM) -1.2%, -0.6% forecast,2.9% previous
•UK Jun Retail Sales (YoY) -0.2% ,0.2% forecast,1.3% previous
•EU May Current Account n.s.a. 34.4B previous
•EU May Current Account 34.6B forecast,38.6B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada May Retail Sales (MoM) -0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun RMPI (MoM) -0.7% forecast,-1.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun IPPI (YoY) 1.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun IPPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.0% previous
•12:30 Canada Jun RMPI (YoY) 7.6% previous
•12:30 Canada May Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.5% forecast,1.8% previous
•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 478 previous
•17:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 584 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:40 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•16:45 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Friday as European Central Bank turned cautious after an expected second rate cut in September swept anxiety about French politics out of the currency's path.With global markets lined up for quick-fire U.S. rate cuts, the ECB signalled heightened concerns about volatile inflation, helping to sustain an upward shift for the euro that is near four-month highs after being shaken by French government turmoil in June.The ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 3.75% after lowering it from 4% in June for the first time in five years and president Christine Lagarde stressed it was not committed to a particular rate pathThe euro was trading at around $1.093, down a touch on the day but still heading for its biggest monthly jump since November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0942(23.6%fib).), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0893(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0868(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound eased against dollar after data showed UK retail sales fell more than expected in June. British retail sales volumes fell by more than expected in June, after unseasonably cooler weather put off shoppers, official figures showed on Friday. Sales volumes dropped by 1.2% last month after a 2.9% jump in May, the Office for National Statistics said. While wages are now rising more quickly than inflation, British shoppers have been squeezed by high inflation over the past two years. It has slowed recently and held at the Bank of England's 2% target last month. However, underlying inflation pressures have diminished hopes among investors for an interest rate cut on Aug. 1, the date of the BoE's next scheduled monetary policy announcement.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2958(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3001(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2921(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2817(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Friday as stronger-than-expected data on the U.S. labour market and manufacturing earlier in the week lifed greenback.Money markets are pricing in more than two rate cuts from the Fed by year-end and just under two for the ECB.The dollar has stood tall over most of its rivals for most of the past year, but is seeing its crown slip as interest rate support fades. The index that measures the dollar against major peers is 2% lower in July so far. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8920(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8970(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8872(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8811(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against Japanese on Friday as dollar firmed following stronger-than-expected data on the U.S. labour market and manufacturing earlier in the week lifed greenback. Traders are pricing in 62 basis points of easing this year. Markets have reacted to the prospect of a Trump presidency by pushing the dollar higher and positioning for a steeper Treasury yield curve.The yen , which is set for a gain of 0.1% this week, was a touch weaker at 157.485 per dollar, after data showed inflation in Japan picked up for a second month. The yen has fallen more than 10% against the dollar this year, mostly down to the wide difference in interest rates between the U.S. and Japan, and hit 38-year lows at the beginning of the month, triggering action from Tokyo.. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.43(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.66(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.94 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Friday and were set for weekly losses, hurt by lower commodity prices and as a rout in global technology shares weighed, even as airlines, media companies, banks and telecoms firms around the world said system outages were disrupting their operations.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.61 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.49 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dipped more than 1% on Friday, as the dollar firmed and some investors locked in profits following the metal's recent surge on increasing expectations of U.S. interest-rate cuts in September.
Spot gold was down 1.4% to $2,411.78 per ounce by 1025 GMT. Bullion hit an all-time high of $2,483.60 on Wednesday.U.S. gold futures fell 1.7% to $2,414.70.
Oil prices were little changed on Friday as a strong dollar and concern over top oil importer China's economy were countered by a tighter supply outlook.
Brent crude prices fell by 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $85.03 a barrel by 0938 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.65 a barrel.
