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Market Roundup
• German Trade Balance (Jul) 21.3B, 16.0B forecast, 15.4B previous
•German Imports (MoM) (Jul) -5.7%, 4.5% forecast, 4.5% previous
•German Exports (MoM) (Jul) -0.8%, 0.0% forecast, 0.9% previous
•French Exports (Jul) 54.7B, 54.5B previous
•French Trade Balance (Jul) -6.7B, -6.0B forecast, -5.8B previous
•French Current Account (Jul) -4.70B, -1.60B previous
•French Imports (Jul) 61.3B, 60.2B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.770% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.885% previous
•15:30 US 3-Year Note Auction 4.291% previous
•19:00 US Consumer Credit (Jul) 11.90B forecast, 14.17B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as investors assessed political uncertainty in Germany and looked ahead to this week’s European Central Bank meeting.The ECB’s policy decision on Thursday is the key event for euro-zone markets. The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates, with investors focused on whether policymakers will provide any guidance on the outlook for further rate increases.Meanwhile, political uncertainty in the euro zone’s largest economy increased after the far-right AfD secured a historic victory in a German state election over the weekend, raising concerns about the country’s political stability. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1641(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1677(Aug 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1612(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1585(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Tuesday as investors waited to hear from several Bank of England policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, for insights on inflation and monetary policy outlook.The BoE's Bailey, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and monetary policy committee members Megan Greene and Alan Taylor will address lawmakers on the Treasury Select Committee at 1315 GMT.
Traders largely expect the central bank to hold interest rates at 3.75% next week. Still, they will be closely watching policymakers' views, given the recent surge in oil prices to nearly $100 a barrel and a surprise vote by a rate-setting member in July in favour of hiking interest rates.Money market futures imply traders are fully pricing in one 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of 2026 despite signs of a slowing labour market.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3685(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3716(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3624(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3531(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as hawkish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia boosted expectations for another interest-rate hike this month.RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said the central bank has little tolerance for inflation remaining above its target for an extended period and could raise interest rates further if price pressures prove stronger than expected.Markets are now pricing in around a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike to 4.60% at the RBA’s September 29 meeting, sharply higher than less than 10% a month ago. A further rate increase in November is also fully priced in. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7254(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7271(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7159 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07151(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped but recovered ground on Tuesday as inflation worries fuelled by a renewed surge in oil prices underpinned the dollar. The yen strengthened to as much as 152.89 per dollar, surpassing levels reached during Japan's July intervention and hitting its strongest since February. The yen has surged more than 5% so far this quarter, with traders and analysts pointing to a slew of factors that are turning away bears. These include bets on a faster pace of Bank of Japan tightening, the potential for Japanese investors to repatriate their funds, the unwinding of carry trades and U.S. political pressure. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.44(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.08(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.95(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Tuesday as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns and fears that an escalation in the Middle East conflict could disrupt energy supplies.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.01 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.07 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as rising oil prices heightened inflation concerns and strengthened expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike. Investors remained cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could provide further clues on the Fed’s interest-rate outlook.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,396.19 per ounce by 09:44 a.m. EDT (1344 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.8% to $4,441.30.
Oil prices climbed to multi-week highs on Tuesday after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities, while Tehran threatened the United States with “economic warfare.
Brent crude futures were up 48 cents, or 0.49%, at $97.48 a barrel at 1311 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $92.55 a barrel, up $1.07, or 1.17%.
