Market Roundup
•French GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.1% ,1.1% previous
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q2)0.3%,0.2%forecast,0.2% previous
•French Jun Consumer Spending (MoM) -0.5%,-0.2% forecast,1.5% previous
• Spanish Jul HICP (YoY) 2.9%,3.3% forecast,3.6% previous
•German Jul CPI (YoY) 1.8%,1.8% previous
•German GDP (YoY) (Q2) -0.1%, 0.0% ,-0.2% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q2) 0.6%,0.6% forecast,0.4% previous
•EU GDP GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.3%,0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 4.9% previous
•13:00 US May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 1.4% previous
•13:00 US May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 6.5% forecast,7.2% previous
•13:00 US May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.4% previous
•13:00 US May House Price Index (YoY) 6.3% previous
•13:00 US May House Price Index 424.3 previous
•13:00 US May House Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•14:00 US Jun JOLTs Job Openings 8.020M forecast,8.140M previous
•14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence 99.7 forecast,100.4 previous
•14:30 US Jul Dallas Fed Services Revenues 1.9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on as investors digested data showing the euro zone's economy grew slightly more than expected in the three months to June. The euro zone's economy grew slightly more than expected in the three months to June, data showed on Tuesday, but a mixed underlying picture and a string of pessimistic surveys cloud the outlook for the rest of the year.The figures paint a picture of a bloc that is struggling to regain its ground in global trade but continues to enjoy a domestic rebound fuelled by higher real incomes and public spending.Output in the 20 countries that share the euro increased by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year, Eurostat data showed, keeping up the pace from the previous quarter and slightly beating economists' expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0868(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0909 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0815(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0790(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Tuesday as investors looked to the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision later in the week and assessed the fallout of spending cuts announced by the new British finance minister.Sterling traded down 0.05% at $1.2854, after having touched a near three-week low of $1.2807 against the dollar in the prior session. Traders are pricing in a near 60% chance that the British central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.0% on August 1. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2906(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2941(July 24tth high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2824(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2749(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting due later this week. The Fed is anticipated to maintain current interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, but may signal potential policy easing as soon as September, citing inflation nearing its 2% target. Investors will be keenly attuned to any clues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his press conference later on Wednesday regarding the timing of potential rate cuts by policymakers. Market focus is also on a series of U.S. employment data scheduled to be released this week including the pivotal non-farm payrolls report due on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8886(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8938(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8823(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8799(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained ground against Japanese on Tuesday as traders had some last minute doubts about whether the Bank of Japan would hike rates this week, while other majors held steady with Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings also in focus. The BOJ's two-day policy meeting is underway and it will announce its rate decision on Wednesday. There has been much anticipation that it will announce a rate increase, building on its hike in March, the first in 17 years.Markets are currently pricing in slightly more than a 50% chance of a 10 bps hike. The dollar was last 0.5% higher versus the yen at 154.76. Strong resistance can be seen at 155.26(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.91 (61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.93(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 151.81 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares started the week strong, lifted by global oil gains amid Middle East conflict fears and a slew of upbeat earnings, though a drop in Reckitt tempered the rally.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.17 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.40 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.42 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's commentary on its monetary policy and a deluge of U.S. economic data due later in the week for more clues on the pace and scale of the Fed's interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,391.14 per ounce as of 1059 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,387.80.
Oil steadied on Tuesday near its lowest levels since early June as worries about demand in China were balanced by a government pledge of policy measures for the economy and the prospect of lower U.S. crude and product inventories.
Brent crude slipped by 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $79.62 a barrel by 1042 GMT. It fell intraday to $79.34, the lowest since June 10. U.S. crude was down 11 cents, or 0.2%, at $75.70.
