Market Roundup
•Switzerland Aug CPI (MoM ) 0.0%,0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
• Switzerland Aug CPI CPI (YoY) 1.1%,1.2% forecast, 1.3% previous
• French Jul Government Budget Balance -103.5B previous
• Switzerland GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.8%,0.6% previous
• Switzerland GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.7%,0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Aug Manufacturing PMI 47.8 previous
•13:45 US Manufacturing PMI 48.0forecast,49.6 previous
•14:00 US Jul Spending (MoM) 0.1%forecast,-0.3%previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing Employment 43.4 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 47.4 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing PMI 47.5 forecast,46.8 previous
•14:00 US Aug ISM Manufacturing Prices 52.1 forecast, 52.9 previous
•14:00 US Aug Total Vehicle Sales 15.40M forecast, 15.80M previous
•15:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
Looking Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:00 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
•14:00 ECB's Supervisory Board Member Jochnick Speak
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar as investors remained cautious ahead of a series of economic reports leading up to Friday's crucial U.S. jobs data. The U.S. ISM manufacturing survey, set for release later in the day, and the jobs report will be key in determining whether the Federal Reserve opts for a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut at its September 18 meeting. Economists expect the ISM survey to show improvement, though it will likely remain in contractionary territory at 47.5 for August. For Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, analysts are expecting an increase of 160,000 jobs and a slight dip in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1077(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1132(Aug 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1022(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0968 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound softened against greenback on Tuesday as investors took profits ahead of a crucial U.S. jobs report later this week. This year, the pound has been the strongest major currency against the dollar, appreciating by 3.1%, compared to a modest 0.2% rise for the euro. The key factor driving this performance is the expectation that UK interest rates will remain higher for longer compared to the eurozone or the United States. The Bank of England's next monetary policy meeting is in two weeks, but the derivatives market indicates that traders anticipate little chance of an additional 25-basis point cut following June’s reduction. November is now seen as the more likely time for another rate adjustment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3178(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3223(Aug 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3092(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3052(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors awaited a series of key data that could influence the trajectory of U.S. interest rate cuts this year. Attention was centered on a U.S. ISM manufacturing survey scheduled for later in the day, while Friday's critical August nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report is anticipated to provide insights into the potential scale of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. Given Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish stance and focus on the labor market last month, any indications about the state of U.S. employment will be closely examined. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8538(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8662(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8440 (23.6%%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8382(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar fell from a two-week high against the yen on Tuesday following media reports that Bank of Japan Governor Ueda had reiterated the central bank's commitment to continuing interest rate hikes if the economy and inflation meet current expectations. Ueda's comments were made in a document presented to a government panel led by outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, where he elaborated on the BOJ’s July policy decision. His remarks underscored that, despite the global market turbulence partly caused by the BOJ's July rate increase, Ueda remains steadfast in his intention to raise borrowing costs if the bank’s projections come to fruition.Strong resistance can be seen at 147.31(38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.61(23.6 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 143.81(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Europe stocks eased on Tuesday as investors remained cautious ahead of a raft of economic data in the run-up to the all-important U.S. jobs report on Friday.
At (GMT 09:52),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.41 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.40 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.08 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday on optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month as attention shifted to upcoming jobs data which could provide more insights into the size of rate cuts.
Spot gold rose about 0.2% to $2,504.02 per ounce by 0928 GMT, having hit more than one-week low in the last session on a firmer dollar. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,535.90.
Brent oil prices fell by 2% as worries about sluggish economic growth in China, the world’s largest crude importer, overshadowed concerns about the impact of halted production and exports from Libya.
Brent crude futures fell by $1.65, or 2.1%, to $75.87 a barrel by 1004 GMT.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures, which did not settle on Monday because of the U.S. Labour Day holiday, were down $1.06, or 1.4%, at $72.49.
