Market Roundup
•Italian May CPI (YoY) 0.8%,0.8%forecast,0.8%previous
•Italian May CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•Italian May HICP (YoY) 0.8%,0.8% forecast,0.9% previous
•EU Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q1) 5.10%, 4.90% forecast,3.40% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.681% previous
•13:00 French 6-Months BTF Auction 3.624% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.517% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.250% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.165% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Released(GMT)
•16:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•17:00 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro hovered near a more than one-month low amid continued concerns about the political outlook in Europe. The euro was nearly flat at $1.0703, picking up somewhat after falling to its lowest since May 1 at $1.06678 on Friday. The currency also logged its biggest weekly decline since April at 0.88% last week. Investors have been contemplating the risk of a budget crisis at the heart of the euro area, as far right and leftist parties gain momentum ahead of France's surprise parliamentary election, pressuring President Emmanuel Macron's centrist administration. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0743(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0822(23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0689 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0615(61.8% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined on Monday, ahead of a policy meeting by the Bank of England this week at which the central bank is not expected to cut interest rates, but might telegraph the likely timing of the first drop.Political turmoil in France last week rattled risk appetite and sent investors fleeing from French assets and the euro which fell 0.6% against sterling last week . Against the dollar, the pound has fared less well, falling 0.6% last week, in its largest weekly slide in two months. Sterling was last down 0.1% at $1.2674.Recent data has shown inflation in the United States is not slowing as quickly as many had anticipated, while the Federal Reserve has said it sees only one rate cut this year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2754(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2808(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2656(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2602(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar gained against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors awaited a string of central bank meetings in the region as well as fresh U.S. economic data. Central banks in Australia, Norway and the UK are all expected to leave their interest rates unchanged at meetings this week, though the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might ease given the recent strength of the Swiss franc. The main U.S. data this week will be May retail sales on Tuesday, where a 0.4% bounce is expected after a 0.3% drop in April. U.S. markets will be closed on Wednesday.The dollar index , which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of six others, held around its highest since May 2, driven mostly by weakness in the euro. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8940 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8990(23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8879 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8852 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Monday as political turmoil in Europe ramped up the level of uncertainty among traders, while investors awaited more data to gauge the strength of the U.S. economy. The yen struggled to gain its footing after the BOJ surprised markets when the central bank announced kept bond buying unchanged at its meeting on Friday, instead pushing details of its tapering plan to its July policy meeting.Governor Kazuo Ueda said, however, he would not rule out raising interest rates in July as weakness in the yen pushes up import costs.The yen was last up 0.05% at 157.41 per dollar, after slipping to 158.26 after Friday's decision, its lowest since April 29.The yen's decline to a 34-year low of 160.245 per dollar at the end of April triggered several rounds of official Japanese intervention totaling 9.79 trillion yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.83(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.13(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.86(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 155.64 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares advanced on Monday, with banks and technology stocks rebounding from losses last week after markets were startled by political uncertainty in France, while Danish insurer Topdanmark surged on Sampo's buyout bid.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.34 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold dipped 0.5% to $2,321 an ounce , unwinding some of last week's 1.7% gain.
Oil edged higher on Monday as hopes for a boost to demand from the summer driving season in the northern hemisphere offset Chinese data that underscored a bumpy recovery for the world's biggest crude importer.
Global benchmark Brent crude futures were up 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $82.95 a barrel at 1212 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $78.70.
