Market Roundup
• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Feb) 10.71B, 7.00B forecast, -13.32B previous
• UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Feb) 6.357B, -22.402B previous
•EU Current Account (Jan) 35.4B, 38.4B previous
•EU Current Account n.s.a. (Jan) 13.2B, 50.5B previous
• Belgium Consumer Confidence (Mar) -10, -4 previous
•Portuguese Current Account (Jan) 0.493B, 6.143B previous
•UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Mar) -29, -30 forecast, -28 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) -0.1% forecast, 2.7% previous
•12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.0%, -0.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) -0.4% forecast, 2.5% previous
•15:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Mar) -13.0 forecast, -13.6 previous
•17:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count pending update, 487 previous
•17:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count pending update, 592 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower on Friday as global trade uncertainties kept a lid on investors' risk appetite. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned on Thursday that a 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. would lower euro zone growth by about 0.3 percentage points in the first year, while retaliatory measures could increase this to about half a percentage point. Trump's new reciprocal tariff rates are set to take effect on April 2.The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered its economic growth outlook for this year and raised inflation projections due to higher uncertainty from President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.The Fed kept borrowing costs unchanged. The Bank of England on Thursday took a similar move, citing an uncertain growth outlook given escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and other global economies..The euro slipped 0.18% to $1.0831 after dropping 0.45% on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound extended its decline against the dollar on Friday but remained on track for a weekly gain after the Bank of England held rates steady and raised concerns over rising global trade tensions.BoE Governor Andrew Bailey joined other central bankers in warning about growing economic uncertainty, largely driven by Trump’s tariffs on global trade partners.Meanwhile, data on Friday showed UK borrowing exceeded expectations in February, highlighting the fiscal challenges facing Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who is expected to announce spending cuts next week. Sterling was down 0.2% at $1.2940. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as concerns over the economic impact of Trump’s global trade tariffs pressured the risk-sensitive currency.Global central banks, including the Fed, BOJ, and BOE, maintained a cautious stance this week, keeping rates unchanged amid rising economic uncertainty.Looking ahead, Australia's government will release its federal budget on Tuesday, focusing on cost-of-living relief ahead of the May election, with a return to deficit expected after two consecutive surpluses.Meanwhile, February’s monthly inflation data, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is forecasted to show a 2.5% annual increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6347(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6392(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6214(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially gained but later retreated as investors assessed Japan’s CPI data. Core inflation hit 3.0% in February, while an index excluding fuel rose at its fastest pace in nearly a year, signaling broader price pressures. The data came after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s warning following the central bank’s decision to hold rates steady, raising concerns over inflation trends and future policy moves. Meanwhile, traders are watching U.S.-Russia talks on the Ukraine war, set for Sunday in Jeddah, a potential geopolitical risk event that could impact market volatility. At GMT 12.06,the dollar was up 0.06% at 148.86 against Japanese yen .. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.82(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.50(61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.11(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.34(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares declined on Friday, pressured by travel and leisure stocks after a mass power outage shut down Heathrow Airport, while growing trade tensions kept investors cautious.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.51 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.79 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.65 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Friday as a stronger dollar and profit-taking weighed on the metal after hitting three consecutive record highs this week, driven by safe-haven demand from trade war fears and Fed rate cut expectations.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $3,030.81 an ounce as of 1036 GMT. U.S. gold futures eased 0.2% to $3,037.70
Oil prices edged lower on Friday but remained on track for a second straight weekly gain, as new U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC+’s latest output plan fueled expectations of tighter global supply.
Brent crude futures were down 27 cents, or 0.4%, at $71.73 a barrel by 1103 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.85.
