Market Roundup
•UK Jan Unemployment Rate 3.9%,3.8%forecast,3.8% previous
•UK Feb Claimant Count Change 16.8K, 20.3K forecast,14.1K previous
•UK Jan Average Earnings ex Bonus 6.1%.6.2% forecast,6.2% previous
•UK Jan Average Earnings Index +Bonus 5.6%,5.7% forecast, 5.8% previous
•German Feb HICP (MoM) 0.6% ,0.6% forecast,-0.2% previous
• German HICP (YoY) 2.7%,2.7% forecast,3.1% previous
• German Feb CPI (YoY) 2.5% ,2.5% forecast,2.9% previous
• UK Jan Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) -21K,10K forecast,72K previous
•US Feb Core CPI Index 315.57, 314.44 previous
•US Feb CPI Index, s.a 311.05, 309.69 previous
•US Feb Real Earnings (MoM) 0.0%,-0.3% previous
•US Feb CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.62%,0.54% previous
•US Feb Core CPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Feb CPI Index, n.s.a. 310.33, 310.30 forecast,308.42 previous
•US Feb Core CPI (YoY) 3.8%,3.7% forecast,3.9% previous
•US Feb CPI (MoM) 0.4%,0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Feb CPI (YoY) 3.2%, 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:00 US Feb Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:00 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
•16:15 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•17:00 German Buba Balz Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against the dollar on Tuesday after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased solidly in February. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a 0.4% increase last month, following a 0.3% climb in January. Gasoline and shelter, which encompasses rents, played a significant role in contributing over 60% to the CPI's monthly rise. Over the 12 months leading up to February, the CPI showed a 3.2% increase, slightly higher than the 3.1% rise seen in January. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.4% last month after rising by the same margin in January. In the 12 months through February, the so-called core CPI advanced 3.8%. That was the smallest year-on-year increase since May 2021 and followed a 3.9% rise in January .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0957(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0993(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0913(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0880(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Tuesday after data showed that growth in British wages was slightly weaker than expected but failed to affect bets on the Bank of England policy path.Wages grew at their slowest pace since October 2022 while the unemployment rate edged up unexpectedly, according to data which may slightly ease the Bank of England's inflation worries. Money markets fully price a 25 basis points rate cut from the BoE by August and an around 50% chance by June. Sterling was last down 0.1% at $1.2798 after jumping 1.6% last week versus the greenback as investors bet that the BoE will be slower than the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2808(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2864(March 11th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2756 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2698(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Tuesday amid data showing hotter-than-expected inflation last month for the world's largest economy. The greenback initially jumped after the data, but later fell. The dollar index was last flat at 102.83 .The Labor Department report showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in February, in line with the forecast for a 0.4% increase. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI gained 3.2%, compared with the estimated 3.1% rise. Economists polled had forecast the CPI gaining 0.4% on the month and increasing 3.1% year-on-year. The annual increase in consumer prices has slowed from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, but progress has stalled in recent months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8808(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8856(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8756(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8723(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased in February. U.S. CPI increased solidly in February amid higher costs for gasoline and shelter, suggesting some stickiness in inflation that could delay an anticipated June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Gasoline and shelter, which includes rents, contributed more than 60% to the monthly increase in the CPI. In the 12 months through February, the CPI increased 3.2%, after advancing 3.1% in January. The yen was last 0.33% lower at 147.47 per dollar, its biggest daily fall since Feb. 13. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.10(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.10 (Feb 5th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.76(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.71(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares moved higher on Tuesday, bolstered by upbeat corporate updates and strength in miners.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 1.26 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.45 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.26 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged further away from a record peak on Tuesday as it looks set to break nine straight sessions of gains ahead of critical U.S. inflation data that could pave the way for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,171.59 per ounce as of 1207 GMT, trading below a record high of $2,194.99 it hit on Friday. U.S. gold futures also dipped 0.5% to $2,177.50.
Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as concerns over conflict in the Middle East were offset by bearish demand sentiment ahead of monthly reports from oil agencies.
Brent futures for May delivery were up 3 cents at $82.24 a barrel by 1226 GMT. The April U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract was down 1 cent at $77.92.
