Market Roundup
•German Jun Business Expectations 89.0, 91.0 forecast, 90.4 previous
•German Jun Ifo Business Climate Index 88.6 89.4 forecast,89.3 previous
•German Jun German Current Assessment 88.3 ,88.4 forecast,88.3 previous
•German Jun CBI Industrial Trends Orders -18, -26 forecast,-33 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.452% previous
•13:00 Belgium Jun NBB Business Climate -10.2 forecast, -11.0 previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.703% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.643% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:00 ECB Supervisory Board Member Fernandez-Bollo Speaks
•14:15 EU ECB McCaul Speaks
•15:30 EU ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•17:45 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
•18:00 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Monday as investors awaited US inflation data for further clues on Federal Reserve rate outlook. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation is due on Friday. Through this week, at least five Fed officials will speak, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Fed Governors Lisa Cook, and Michelle Bowman. On the data front, German business morale unexpectedly fell in June due to more pessimistic expectations of Europe's largest economy, according to a survey.The euro is heading for a drop of 1.2% in June, its largest monthly decline since January. But on Monday, it was trading up 0.2% on the day at $1.07123 . Investors awaited commentary from at least four members of the European Central Bank (ECB) later in the day, including board member Isabel Schnabel, for clues on the central bank's monetary policy path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0739(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0776(50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0713(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0687(61.8% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against a broadly softer dollar on Monday, as markets looked beyond Britain's upcoming general election, opens new tab and instead set their focus on the outlook for monetary policy.The pound was last up almost 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2664, having fallen to $1.2622 on Friday, its lowest level since May 15.Britain heads to the voting booth on July 4 but with polls steady and signalling the opposition Labour Party is likely to win a majority, markets are showing little concern about the outcome. Instead, much of the focus remains on the outlook for monetary policy.The Bank of England last week held its main interest rate steady at a 16-year high of 5.25%, but the prospect of a future rate cut moved closer as some policymakers said their thinking was now "finely balanced . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2664(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2704(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2630(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2564(50% fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar eased against Swiss franc on Monday as investors awaited inflation reading due later this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Federal Reserve's favoured gauge of inflation due on Friday.The dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit against six peers, was last at 105.66, edging back from a nearly eight-week high of 105.91 it touched last week. Traders are currently pricing in a 66% chance of Fed rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch Tool. The focus through the week will also be on geopolitics, with the first U.S. presidential debate on Thursday and the first round of voting in the French election at the weekend.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8962 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8905 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8830 (23.6% fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against yen on Monday a markets were on alert for Japanese intervention as the dollar tested the 160-yen barrier. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Monday authorities will take appropriate steps if there is excessive foreign exchange movement, and that the addition of Japan to the U.S. Treasury's monitoring list would not restrict their actions. The yen has come under renewed pressure after the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision this month to hold off on reducing bond-buying stimulus until its July meeting. It is down 1.5% in June. Strong resistance can be seen at 159.09(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.55(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.83 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 156.86 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares advanced on Monday, shrugging off initial losses as automobile and bank stocks rose, while focus remained on the first round of French parliamentary elections later this week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.43 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.42 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.80 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields eased, while investors awaited inflation reading due later this week that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,330.56 per ounce as of 0834 GMT, after dropping 1% on Friday due to a stronger dollar. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,343.30.
Oil prices firmed slightly on Monday as traders weighed support from expected summer demand and geopolitical tensions against a stronger dollar.
Brent crude futures were up 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $85.46 a barrel by 1053 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 19 cents, or 0.2%, at $80.92. Both benchmarks gained about 3% last week for their second consecutive weekly gains.
