Market Roundup
• German Business Expectations (Oct) 91.6 ,89.8 previous
• German Current Assessment (Oct) 85.3, 85.5 forecast 85.7 previous
• German Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) 88.4, 88.1 forecast 87.7 previous
• EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Sep) 2.8%, 2.7% forecast 2.9% previous
• EU M3 Money Supply (Sep) 16,990.4B, 16,912.3B previous
• EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Sep) 2.9%, 3.0% previous
• EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Sep) 2.6% , 2.6% forecast, 2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.020% previous
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 1.987% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.015% previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) 20.5% previous
•14:00 US New Home Sales (Sep) 710K forecast,800K previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened against the dollar on Monday after data showed an improvement in German business sentiment. The Ifo business climate index rose to 88.4 in October from 87.7 in September, signaling a slight recovery in confidence despite ongoing trade challenges. Germany’s economy has struggled to regain momentum, contracting 0.3% in the second quarter as weaker U.S. demand and tariff concerns weighed on exports. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Monday as investors stayed cautious ahead of a week packed with central bank decisions. Softer UK inflation data last week boosted expectations of Bank of England rate cuts, pushing 2-year gilt yields down 7.5 bps before a slight rebound late in the week. Yields were steady at 3.80% on Monday, with markets now pricing a 67% chance of a BoE rate cut by year-end and fully expecting two cuts by June 2026.The pound was up 0.20% to $1.3345 , snapping a five-session losing streak. Meanwhile,investors have priced in that British finance minister Rachel Reeves will raise tens of billions of pounds in taxes in her budget on November 26 to stay on track to meet her fiscal targets and avoid a loss of confidence in the bond market. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3362 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3393(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3261(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3246(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose to a two-week high on Monday, boosted by improving global risk sentiment after encouraging signs from U.S.-China trade negotiations. Top economic officials from both countries reached a preliminary agreement on a trade framework ahead of a highly anticipated meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea later this week. A successful deal is expected to pause additional U.S. tariffs and China’s export curbs on rare earths, easing concerns over the prolonged trade dispute. As Australia maintains strong export ties with China, the Australian dollar often serves as a barometer for global trade sentiment and investor risk appetite. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6576(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.671(Oct 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6476(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6445(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially gained but later eased as investors turned cautious ahead of a series of major central bank meetings this week. Markets will focus on policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, and European Central Bank. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps following softer September inflation, though uncertainty over the government shutdown’s data impact persists. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, is likely to keep rates unchanged while weighing future hikes amid easing recession fears and political constraints. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares touched an intraday record high on Monday as easing U.S.-China trade tensions lifted investor sentiment and boosted risk appetite.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell 2% on Monday as easing U.S.-China trade tensions boosted risk appetite for equities, while investors awaited key central bank meetings this week for rate-cut signals.
Spot gold fell 2% to $4,029.69 per ounce by 1122 GMT, retreating over 5% from its October 20 record high of $4,381.21.
Oil prices fell on Monday, weighed by doubts that a U.S.-China trade deal framework would quickly boost demand and after Iraq’s oil minister confirmed an oilfield fire had not disrupted the country’s exports.
Brent crude futures were down 32 cents, or nearly 0.5%, to $65.62 a barrel at 1015 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 30 cents, also nearly 0.5%, to $61.20.
