Market Roundup
• German Imports (MoM) (Dec): 1.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•German Exports (MoM) (Dec): 4.0%, 1.0% forecast, -2.5% previous.
•German Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec): -0.55%, 0.43% previous.
•French Reserve Assets Total (Jan): 409,263.0M, no forecast, 362,743.0M previous.
•French Trade Balance (Dec): -4.8B, -3.8B forecast, -4.0B previous.
•French Exports (Dec): 53.1B, 52.2B previous.
•French Imports (Dec): 57.9B, 56.2B previous.
•French Current Account (Dec): -0.60B, -0.30B previous.
•Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Jan): 3.2%, no forecast, 3.1% previous.
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jan): 2.9%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous.
•Canada Unemployment Rate (Jan): 6.5%, 6.8% forecast, 6.8% previous.
•Canada Employment Change (Jan): -24.8K, 5.2K forecast, 10.1K previous.
•Canada Full Employment Change (Jan): 44.9K, 50.2K previous.
•Canada Part Time Employment Change (Jan): -69.7K, -41.3K previous.
•Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Jan): 3.3%, 3.7% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Feb): 4.0% previous.
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Feb): 56.7 forecast, 57.0 previous.
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb): 55.0, 56.4 forecast, no previous.
•15:00 US Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Jan): 43.3 previous.
•15:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Feb): 54.9 forecast, 55.4 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged on Friday after the European Central Bank left interest rates on hold as expected on Thursday and played down the impact of dollar moves on its future decisions. At a press conference following the decision, central bank President Christine Lagarde said the outlook for inflation was more uncertain than usual and that a stronger euro could lower price pressures by more than policymakers currently expect. On the data front,German industrial production dropped for the first time since August, a sign of persisting challenges for the sector as it tries to exit a protracted slump.Output decreased 1.9% in December, compared with a revised 0.2% advance the previous month. Economists polled had predicted a 0.3% decline, though none had anticipated such a weak reading. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1908(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1978(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1786(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1762(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday, regaining some ground after a sharp decline in the previous session that followed the Bank of England’s unexpectedly close vote to keep interest rates unchanged and its indication that cuts could follow if inflation continues to ease.Sterling climbed 0.4% to $1.3581 by mid-morning in London, recovering part of Thursday’s nearly 1% drop, which had pushed the currency to its lowest level in 10 days. On top of the shifting outlook for interest rates, sterling traders, who are sticking with their view that the BoE will likely cut rates twice this year, are having to contend with a tricky political backdrop this week.Prime Minister Keir Starmer is under huge pressure, including from lawmakers in his own Labour Party, over the decision to make Peter Mandelson Britain's ambassador to Washington in December 2024, when his ties to the late U.S. sex offender Jeffrey Epstein were already known. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3676(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3728(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3547 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3419(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strenthed on Friday as strong surge in precious metals prices boosted commodity linked Australian dollar. Spot silver was up 4.4% at $74.37 an ounce on the day after falling below the $65 per ounce level during early Asia trading.Gold was up 0.3% for the week, while silver was down more than 12% after shedding 18% last week, its biggest weekly fall since 2011.The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked its cash rate a quarter point to 3.85% and left the door open to further tightening if inflation stayed stubborn in coming months.Appearing before lawmakers on Friday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that higher rates were needed to slow the economy and bring demand back into line with limited supply.Markets imply around a 70% chance rates will rise to 4.10% at the RBA's May meeting, following inflation data for the first quarter due in late April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6748(Feb 3rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7084(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6941(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6835(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Friday as the Japanese currency strengthened ahead of this weekend’s lower house elections. Japan’s first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is seeking to reinforce her grip on power in Sunday’s national vote, with opinion polls indicating a strong victory for her conservative party. Surveys released this week suggest that Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party, together with its coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), could win around 300 seats in the 465-member lower house of parliament.Takaichi’s proposal to help households cope with rising living costs by suspending the 8% sales tax on food triggered a market selloff last month, as investors raised concerns about the fiscal consequences of the plan.The election has left investors cautious, with fiscal concerns already fueling sharp volatility in currency and bond markets. Any further declines could have broader ripple effects across global financial markets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.89(Dec 18th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.21(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.37(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 154.36 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe’s benchmark share index edged slightly higher on Friday, as a strong rally in defence firm Kongsberg outweighed weak preliminary results from automaker Stellantis and ongoing concerns about the outlook for software companies.
At GMT (13:15) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.38% percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.87 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.32 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday, recovering from the previous session’s sharp decline, as falling global equities boosted safe-haven demand and ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions supported sentiment.
Spot gold rose 2.6% to $4,893.59 per ounce by 1243 GMT, and U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 0.5% to $4,914.10 per ounce.
Oil prices fell on Friday as investors evaluated the outcome of talks between the United States and Iran held in Oman, amid concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East.
Brent crude futures fell 55 cents, or 0.8%, to $67.00 a barrel by 1410 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 60 cents, or 1%, at $62.69 a barrel.
