Market Roundup
•Italian Jul Business Confidence 87.6, 87.0 forecast,86.8 previous
•French Consumer Confidence 91,90 forecast,89 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jun Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) -0.8% previous
•12:30 US Personal Income (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
•12:30 US Jun Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 2.5% forecast,2.6% previous
•12:30 US Jun Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:30 US Jun PCE Price index (YoY) 2.5% forecast,2.6% previous
•12:30 US Jun PCE price index (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
•12:30 US Jun Personal Spending (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•13:00 US Jun Dallas Fed PCE 1.40% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9% forecast,3.0% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Consumer Expectations 67.2 forecast,69.6 previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9% forecast,3.0% previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Consumer Sentiment 66.0 forecast,68.2 previous
•14:00 US Jul Michigan Current Conditions 64.1 forecast,65.9 previous
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 477 previous
•17:00 U.S Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 586 previous
Looking Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Friday as investors focus turned to personal consumption expenditures price data to confirm bets of an early start to Fed rate cuts. Markets are awaiting the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data due at 1230 GMT. The PCE price index is the U.S. Fed's preferred measure of inflation.Data on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, but inflation pressures subsided, leaving intact expectations of a September interest rate cut fromthe Fed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0865(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0909 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0825(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0790(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose on Friday but was still headed for a second consecutive weekly fall against the dollar after a week of turmoil across global markets hit higher-yielding assets and as investors switch focus to next week's Bank of England meeting.The pound, which hit one-year highs last week above $1.31, is heading for a 0.5% decline against the dollar this week.It's still on track for a gain of 1.6% this month and remains this year's top-performing G10 currency against the dollar, with a 1.1% rise, compared with runner-up the euro , which is down 1.67% against the dollar this year.Sterling was up 0.14% on the day at $1.28685. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2953(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3020(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2861(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2824(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar edged higher against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors focus shifted to US inflation data. Investors were awaiting the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index for June, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, at 1230 GMT (8.30 a.m. ET). Data on Thursday that showed the U.S. economy grew more than expected in the second quarter , although did little to change traders' bets on two or three Fed cuts this year, starting in September. The index tracking the dollar against six peers was little changed at 104.39, while the euro was very slightly higher at $1.0855. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8886(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8938(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8779(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8700(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained ground against Japanese on Friday as traders awaited crucial U.S. inflation data that could help cement expectations for where Federal Reserve rates might head.The yen has dominated the currency markets this month, surging to a near three-month high of 151.945 per dollar on Thursday after starting the month at a 38-year low of 161.96.On Friday, the yen lost some ground, as the dollar rose 0.47% to 154.655, but was still set for a 2.5% gain for the week, its biggest weekly rise against the U.S. currency since late April, as a sell-off in global stocks has driven investors into safe havens, including the yen. The dollar was last up 0.47% against the yen at 154.30. Strong resistance can be seen at 153.52(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.18(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.93 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 151.56 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks and U.S. futures rebounded on Friday as markets stabilised after a week in which global equities have tumbled almost 2%, while the dollar regained ground against the yen ahead of U.S. inflation data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.88 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.45 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.90 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices regained some ground on Friday after falling sharply in the previous session, ahead of key U.S. inflation data that could offer more cues on when interest rate cuts will start.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,370.5 per ounce by 1110 GMT, but was down 1% so far this week. Prices had hit their lowest since July 9 on Thursday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth data.
Oil prices were little changed on Friday but on track for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by muted demand in China and expectations of a Gaza ceasefire deal that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns.
Brent crude futures for September dipped 1 cent to $82.36 a barrel by 0744 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September fell 6 cents to $78.22.