Market Roundup
•Spanish Trade Balance (Sep)-3.30B,-4.80B previous
• EU Trade Balance (Sep) 12.5B,7.9B forecast,4.1B previous
• Swiss Industrial Production (YoY) (Q3) 3.50%, 7.00%previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 Canada Housing Starts (Oct) 239.0K forecast,223.8K previous
•13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Sep) 10.50B forecast, 9.97B previous
•13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Sep) 12.340B previous
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.515% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.989% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.806% previous
•15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov) 42 forecast,43 previous
•16:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 4.420% previous
•16:30 US 6-Months Bill Auction 4.310% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT
•15:00 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•18:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Monday as investors took stock of latest developments with Trump's top team and the outlook for monetary policy. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's new administration is beginning to take shape with nominations to health and defense roles last week, but two key positions for financial markets, Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative, are yet to be filled.Trump's pick of vaccine sceptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the top U.S. health job has already led to a fallout in the health care sector, with drugmakers sliding at the end of last week.Trump's plans for lower taxes and higher tariffs are expected to spur inflation and reduce the Fed's scope to ease interest rates. . The euro stood at $1.0547.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0611(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0671(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0538`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0521(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Monday as caution prevailed ahead of UK inflation report due later in the week. The Bank of England should keep interest rates on hold until upside risks to inflation - including those posed by the election of Donald Trump as the United States' next president - dissipate, a top BoE official said on Thursday.Mann said the risk of global shocks should be incorporated into the monetary policy decision-making process, and that economic volatility in general tended to create higher inflation and require higher interest rates to tackle it. Sterling was last up 0.1% at $1.2627, from $1.2598 on Friday, its lowest since mid-May. Traders see a roughly 80% chance the Bank of England will cut rates again next month, and see rates falling by around 65 basis points to just above 4% by the end of next year. The BoE rate is currently 4.75%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2683(SMA 5), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2723(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2592 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2515(My 14th low
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy updates for further guidance. This week, the RBA will release the minutes of its latest policy meeting on Tuesday, followed by a speech from Governor Michele Bullock on Thursday. However, neither event is expected to significantly shift market expectations on interest rates. The Aussie remains near multi-month lows, pressured by recent U.S. economic data, which strengthened the view that the Federal Reserve’s scope for further rate cuts is limited. The Aussie edged 0.1% lower to $0.6450 on Monday, having ended last week down 1.8% in the biggest weekly drop in four months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6500(SMA 5), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6512(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6441(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6389(April 16th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday after Japan's top central banker flagged further policy tightening ahead but left open the question of timing, leaving the market no clearer on whether a move would come next month. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Monday the central bank will keep raising rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts, but made no mention of whether a hike could come in December.However, he later said in a press conference that keeping inflation-adjusted real interest rates low for too long could cause excessive inflation and force the BOJ into hiking interest rates rapidly.Ueda's comments were closely watched by investors for clues on the BOJ's next rate hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.20(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.46(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.70(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.50(SMA 21).
Equities Recap
European shares dipped on Monday following a string of weekly losses, weighed down by real estate and technology stocks, while investors awaited speeches from European Central Bank policymakers to gauge the path of interest rates.
At (GMT 12:27),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.09 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.21 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.11 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rebounded on Monday, having posted losses in the previous six sessions, with gains driven by a pause in the U.S. dollar's rally, while investors await comments from the Federal Reserve officials for clarity on the interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,593.32 per ounce by 1206 GMT, moving away from a two-month low hit on Thursday. U.S. gold futures were up 1.1% at $2,597.80.
il prices edged up on Monday after fighting between Russia and Ukraine intensified over the weekend, although concerns about fuel demand in China and forecasts of a global oil surplus weighed on markets.
Brent crude futures were up 55 cents, or 0.8%, to $71.59 a barrel at 0954 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $67.45 a barrel, up 43 cents, or 0.6%.
