Europe Roundup: Sterling slips as traders look for new drivers, European stocks inch up, Gold gains, Oil dips as Gaza ceasefire expectations grow-July 23rd 2024

Market Roundup

• Finnish Jun Unemployment Rate  8.2%  ,8.2% previous

 Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•12:30   Canada Jun New Housing Price Index (MoM)  0.2% previous

•12:55   US Redbook (YoY) 4.8% previous

•14:00   US Jun Existing Home Sales (MoM)  -0.7% previous

•14:00   EU Jul Consumer Confidence  -13.0 forecast,-14.0 previous

•14:00   EU Jul Richmond Manufacturing Shipments  -9 previous

•14:00   US Jul Richmond Manufacturing Index -7 forecast,-10 previous

•14:00   US Jul Richmond Services Index -11 previous

•14:00   US Jun Existing Home Sales  3.99M forecast,4.11M previous

•14:00   US Jul Richmond Manufacturing Index  -7 forecast,-10 previous

•14:00   US Jul Richmond Services Index -11 previous

•14:00   US Jun Existing Home Sales  3.99M forecast,4.11M previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

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Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro eased  on Tuesday as dollar held firm as traders waited for inflation data later in the week. Trading was relatively subdued in a week with little in the way of economic data until the release of U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation figures for June on Friday.The market reaction to U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to bow out of the election race was muted, though there was some unwinding of the so-called Trump trade, which has seen the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ease a touch. The dollar index , which tracks the U.S. currency against six peers, rose slightly to 104.36, after falling to a four-month low of 103.64 last week. The euro was down 0.22% at $1.0868. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0953(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0873(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0813(50%fib).

GBP/USD: The pound fell slightly on Tuesday, slipping further from last week's one-year high, as investors waited for U.S. inflation data on Friday to shake up subdued currency markets. Britain has had the best performing currency against the dollar this year as stickier-than-expected services inflation data caused the Bank of England to postpone interest rate cuts, keeping yields on UK bonds at attractive levels.The Labour Party's landslide election victory on July 4 has also raised hopes among some investors for greater political stability after a chaotic few years under the Conservatives. Sterling was last 0.1% lower against the dollar at $1.2924, after hitting its highest level last week since July 2023 at $1.3044.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2933(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2990(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2900(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2833(50%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar edged lower against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors waited for U.S. inflation data on Friday. Markets have priced in two U.S. rate cuts this year with the first in September, but expectations could be ruffled by growth and consumer price data due later in the week.Advance U.S. gross domestic product is forecast to show growth picking up to an annualised 2% in the second quarter, while the closely watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator points to growth of 2.7%, suggesting some risk to the upside.The core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is seen rising 0.1% in June, pulling the annual pace down a tick to 2.5%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8920(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8962(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8848(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8828(Lower BB).

USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Japanese on Tuesday as   investors reacted to comments from a senior Japanese politician that added to pressure on the Bank of Japan to keep hiking rates to boost the currency. Senior ruling party official Toshimitsu Motegi said overnight that the Bank of Japan should more clearly indicate its resolve to normalise monetary policy, including through steady interest rate hikes. The BOJ next sets rates on July 31.The yen has found some support on the back of Tokyo's recent bouts of intervention to prop up the currency and as traders looked to the BOJ's decision. However, most economists polled   expect the BOJ to keep rates on hold at the meeting. Strong resistance can be seen at 157.20(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.40(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.67 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 154.76 (Lower BB).

Equities Recap

European shares edged higher on Tuesday as a rally in technology-related shares following robust earnings from SAP and Logitech offset losses in miners.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was last up   by 1.02 percent, France’s CAC was last  up by 0.18 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices drifted higher on Tuesday, snapping a four-day losing streak, as investors awaited U.S. economic data later this week for more insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cut plans.

Spot gold   was up 0.4% at $2,407.50 per ounce, as of 1014 GMT, down from a record high of $2,483.60 hit last week. U.S. gold futures   gained 0.6% to $2,408.80.

Oil prices dipped on Tuesday as growing expectations of a ceasefire in the war in Gaza weighed on prices, more than offsetting news of a potential September interest-rate cut in the European Union that supported sentiment.

Brent crude futures for September fell 39 cents to $82.01 a barrel by 1135 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for September dropped 39 cents to $78.01 per barrel.