FOMC Signals No Rush to Cut Rates, Cites Inflation Risk

The Federal Reserve FOMC left interest rates flat at 4.25%-4.5% in its January meeting, the minutes released on February 19, 2025, indicated. The committee voted on this by a unanimous vote. The Fed awaits further progress toward inflation before acting on the target range. Policy actions, for example, in the form of tariffs, are feared by the officials to be over the 2% target to leave inflation.

FOMC members were upbeat in their expectations of the economy, which they attributed to optimism about ease of government regulations and changing tax policies. Concurrently, the committee acknowledged the risk to the inflation projection, for instance, to changing trade and immigration policies. Specifically, the minutes indicated worries about President Trump's tariffs and their potential impact on inflation. Firms would pass on higher input costs due to potential tariffs to customers.

The Fed will meet again on March 18-19, 2025. Market predictions are anticipating a potential 0.25% July rate reduction.