Bank of Japan Governor Signals Gradual Progress Toward 2% Inflation Target 
BOJ Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Middle East Uncertainty 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
ANZ and Westpac Forecast Two RBA Rate Hikes in March and May 2026 
Bank of Japan Eyes April Rate Hike Despite Inflation Dip, ING Says 
China Holds Benchmark Loan Prime Rate Steady for Tenth Consecutive Month 
ECB Eyes Rate Hike Amid Iran Conflict-Driven Energy Price Surge 
FOMC increased interest rates in March and June and increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. June decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 175-200 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 23rd July)
- August 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 95.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 4.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
- September 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 10.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 85.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- November 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 10.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 81.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 8.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 3.7 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 36 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 54.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 5.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
- January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 34.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 52.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 8.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have eased for near month and tightened for the far month.
- The market is pricing the third hike for 2018 in September and pricing it with 85.7 percent probability compared to 86.8 percent a week ago.
- The market is pricing the fourth hike in December with 60.3 percent probability instead of 55.6 percent probability just a week ago.
