Fitch: Latest Indicators Underscore Resilience of Eurozone Recovery 

Latest readings on PMI balances, credit growth and labour market performance underline the resilience of the recovery in the eurozone, says Fitch Ratings. This is one of the standout trends visible in our latest bi-monthly 20/20 Vision chart-pack, plotting high-frequency macroeconomic data covering 20 key economic variables and 20 major countries.

Fitch upgraded its outlook for eurozone growth in its last quarterly Global Economic Outlook forecast in March 2017 and subsequent data releases have confirmed the persistence of the expansion. Improving labour market conditions have been a key component, with ongoing job growth and declines in unemployment helping consumer confidence and the latest readings suggesting a small up-tick in nominal wage inflation, albeit to a rate that is still well below that consistent with the ECB's inflation target.

"The eurozone saw one of the most impressive improvements in PMI balances amongst the advanced counties in the second half of 2016 and recent readings have corroborated this trend. The steady rise in credit growth to the private sector is also suggesting that ECB QE may have started to gain some traction on the economy, while a pick-up in exports partly reflects the stabilisation in emerging markets," said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch.

High frequency data from China has also been better than expected recently, with a notable pick-up in industrial production in March to a rate not seen since late 2014. However, data from the US and UK have been more mixed, with soft US non-farm payrolls in March and weakening retail sales growth in the UK.