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SEK has been one of the underperformers in G10 this week, weakening in sympathy with EUR. There isn’t an immediately identifiable catalyst for the underperformance, although wage negotiations yielded an outcome that was modestly softer than expectations on Friday and the widely followed Economic Tendency Survey printed 1.5pts below consensus.
As a result, our EASI for Sweden has turned negative for the first time six weeks. One data print doesn’t a trend make and indeed our EASIs typically begin to become meaningful drivers of currencies only if the surprises persist for a 4- to 6- week period.
In the meanwhile, the underlying narrative for a bullish SEK view remains intact— we still think that growth will remain strong with a forecast of 4% QoQ SAAR in 1Q and the bar for additional Riksbank easing remains high. The immediate focus will be on the PMI release next week followed by the CPI on April 11.
Consequently, we were also short EURSEK put to earn some time decay as EURSEK is prone to consolidate between CPI prints. We take profits on the put this week as it has realized nearly half its profit potential.
Stay short in EURSEK at 9.4847 via 3m put, strike 9.35 on March 3 for 0.52%. Marked at 0.23%.
Long an NZD put/SEK call, strike 6.10, expiry May 23. Paid 1.47%, marked at 0.59%.
