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We turned bullish on precious metals last Friday as we see strengthening demand fundamentals and higher pricing over the late stages of the current economic expansion. Gold futures contracts for April delivery eased 0.21% to $1,347.81 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the NYME.
Stay long Dec’18 CME gold: As we are pulling forward a bearish USD view, we now believe that the persistence of USD weakness is here to stay. As such, we recently boosted our gold price forecasts and recommended length in Dec’18 CME gold. Consequently, added longs in gold futures for Dec’18 deliveries at $1,352.80/oz.
Trade target is set at $1,556/oz with a stop at $1,285/oz. Marked to market at $1,341.60/oz on Feb 8, 2018 for a loss of $11.20/oz or -0.8%.
Meanwhile, we also advocate longs in CME silver for Dec’18 deliveries: On the back of upward revisions on gold we have further boosted our silver forecasts and, amidst a broader medium-term precious metals rally, see the potential for silver to outperform gold as the XAU/XAG ratio moves lower towards 70 over the second half of the year.
From nearly 80 as of writing, we believe our near a top on the ratio and our technical analyst is looking for confirmation of a bearish trend in the ratio with breaks below 74.68 and 73.49.
Also, on the fundamental side, silver’s linkage to industrial demand also makes it more exposed to a late-cycle demand thrust, which should also boost its pricing prospects, if anything. As such, we look for silver to rebound from weakness and break out higher over the medium-term.
