UK Retail Sales Rise as World Cup and Heatwave Boost Food, Pubs and Clothing 
Oil Prices Rise as US-Iran Talks Stall, Inflation Risks Grow 
Singapore Raises 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 4.5%-5.5% as AI Boom Fuels Economy 
Gold Prices Rise as Fed Rate Hike Bets Ease 
Asian Stocks Rise as Weak US Jobs Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Fears 
Asian Stocks Rise as Weak US Jobs Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Bets 
Chile Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 4.5% as Inflation and Global Risks Persist 
Asian Currencies Steady as Markets Await U.S. Inflation Data 
Wall Street Slips as Oil Prices Surge 5% on Iran-Hormuz Uncertainty 
We expect the Swiss franc to be an outperformer among the group of majors, even if the U.S. Federal Reserve moves with a hike in rates. Swiss franc, thanks to the intervention of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains quite attractively valued given the inflated asset prices in the financial markets amid a slowdown in the economy.
We have long been forecasting a weakness in the USD but that hasn’t materialized much so far. The interest rate path that supported the rise of the dollar back in 2014 isn’t that steep anymore, instead, the green buck found support as an alternate safe haven, monetary policies from other central banks and regulatory shortages. However, we expect that will slowly be nearing its end over the course of the year and the next unless Fed radically revives the expectation path. Even if they do, we suspect that it would be supportive of the upside in the franc, given the inflated capital market.
Trade idea:
We call for a sell in the dollar against franc (USD/CHF) at 0.972 and at rallies, targeting 0.9 area with the stop loss around parity.
