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We expect the Swiss franc to be an outperformer among the group of majors, even if the U.S. Federal Reserve moves with a hike in rates. Swiss franc, thanks to the intervention of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains quite attractively valued given the inflated asset prices in the financial markets amid a slowdown in the economy.
We have long been forecasting a weakness in the USD but that hasn’t materialized much so far. The interest rate path that supported the rise of the dollar back in 2014 isn’t that steep anymore, instead, the green buck found support as an alternate safe haven, monetary policies from other central banks and regulatory shortages. However, we expect that will slowly be nearing its end over the course of the year and the next unless Fed radically revives the expectation path. Even if they do, we suspect that it would be supportive of the upside in the franc, given the inflated capital market.
Trade idea:
We call for a sell in the dollar against franc (USD/CHF) at 0.972 and at rallies, targeting 0.9 area with the stop loss around parity.
