FxWirePro- Commodity Daily Update

Gold -

Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)

Tenken-Sen- $2028.54

Kijun-Sen- $2022.68

Gold trades weak on upbeat US economic data. US flash manufacturing and services PMI in Jan came at 50.30 and 52.90 respectively, compared to a forecast of 47.6 and 51.40. The yellow metal hit a low of $2011 yesterday and is currently trading around $2014.70.

   According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in  Jan decreased to 97.40% from 96.90% a week ago.

.

  US dollar index-  Bullish only if it closes above 103.69 (200-day EMA). Minor support around 103/102.40 The near-term resistance is 103.75/104.50.

 Factors to watch for gold price action-

   Global stock market- Bullish  (negative for gold)

  US dollar index - Mixed (Neutral  for gold)

  US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)

Technical:

The near–term support is around $2000, a break below targets of $1970/$1956. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2025 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2040/$2050/$2062/$2078.

 It is good to buy on dips around $1988-90 with SL around $1970 for TP of $2065/$2080.

.

Silver-

Silver jumped more than $1 in three days despite a weak gold price. It trades above 21 and 55- EMA and below long-term MA (200- EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any close above $23.20 (200-4H EMA) confirms a bullish continuation. A jump to $23.60/$24 is possible. It is facing immediate support at around $22.50. Any break below targets $21.90/$21.50.  

Crude oil-  

WTI crude oil prices break significant resistance after US crude oil inventory.  According to EIA, US crude oil inventory decreased by 9.23 million bills the previous month, compared to a forecast of -2150K.

 Major resistance- $77/80. Significant support- $74/$70.

Jan 25th, 2024,  ECB monetary policy statement (1:15 pm GMT)

Advance US GDP q/q, US durable goods order (1:30 pm GMT)