2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
U.S. Stocks vs. Bonds: Are Diverging Valuations Signaling a Shift? 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2036.94
Kijun-Sen- $2029.12
Gold trades are highly volatile ahead of US Fed monetary policy. The US fed is expected to keep rates on hold at 5.25%-5.50 %. Markets await the US Fed chairman's press conference for the exact timing of the rate cut. The escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East also supports safe-haven assets like gold. The yellow metal hit a high of $2048.63 yesterday and is currently trading around $2038.53.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Jan unchanged at 97.9% from 97.90% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bullish only if it closes above 103.69 (200-day EMA). Minor support around 103/102.75. The near-term resistance is 103.75/104.50.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Mixed (Neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2030, a break below targets of $2015/$2000/$1970/$1956. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2050 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2065/$2080/$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $2015 with SL around $2000 for TP of $2065/$2080.
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Silver-
Silver is consolidating in a narrow range between $22.77 and $23.30 for the past two days. It trades above 21 and 55- EMA and below long-term MA (200- EMA) in the 4-hour chart. The near-term resistance is around $23.15 (200- 4H EMA) and a close above confirms a bullish continuation. Any close above $23.15 will take the pair to $23.60/$24 is possible. It is facing immediate support at around $22.80. Any break below target $22.50/$21.90/$21.50.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices showed a minor sell-off due to the Chinese property crisis. Markets eye US FOMC meeting.
Major resistance- $80/$83.50. Significant support- $77/$74.
Jan 31st, 2024, US ADP employment (1:15 pm GMT)
Chicago PMI (2:45 pm GMT)
FOMC federal funds rate (7:00 pm GMT)
