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We remain MW RUB in the GBI-EM Model portfolio, but are bearishly biased, holding USDRUB call spreads. YTD the ruble has been the strongest performer in EM FX, with a spot around +7.2% stronger against USD.
However, in our view risks from current levels are skewed to the downside, given expensive valuations and geopolitical uncertainties. And geopolitical concerns remain.
Geopolitical risks continue to linger, and if were to materialize, could generate bouts of capital outflow pressure. With the budget rule in place, our economist forecasts the CBR to purchase around $67bn of FX on behalf of the budget rule in 2019, from the $100bn projected current account surplus.
This is our view does not leave a strong buffer to deal with such potential capital outflow bouts. Accordingly, we hold 26-July-19 USDRUB 67/71 1x1 call spreads (at spot reference: 68.002 levels). Courtesy: JPM
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly USD is flashing at 105 (which is highly bullish) while articulating (at 13:24 GMT).
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
