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Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1907.30
Kijun-Sen- $1813.25
Gold prices lost their shine on easing the banking crisis. The yellow metal was one of the best performers in Mar and surged more than $150, the best month since Jul 2020. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has increased the chance of a rate cut by the Fed and also pushed gold prices higher. It hits a high of $ in 2009 and is currently trading around 1980.65.
US Conference Board consumer confidence improves to 104.20, compared to a forecast of 101. Richmond Fed manufacturing index improves to -5 vs. Expected -10.
US Final GDP grew in the fourth quarter to 2.6% vs. Estimate of 2.7%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits for the week ended Mar 25th rose by 7000 to 198000, above the estimate of 196000.
Major economic data for the Week
Apr 3rd, 2023 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (3:00 pm GMT).
Apr 5th, 2023 US ADP (1:15 pm GMT)
Apr 7th, 2023 US ISM services PMI (3:00 pm GMT)
US dollar index-Bearish. Minor support around 101.90/101. The near-term resistance is 103.40/104.20.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in May increased to 56.2% from 40.2% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor sell-off after hitting a high of 3.61%. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -55.2% from -108%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1949, a break below targets of $1944/$1935/$1921/$1890.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1955, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1966/$1970.
It is good to buy on dips around $1955 with SL around $1936 for TP of $2000.
