Gold Cracks Below $4,500 as Safe-Haven Shine Fades; Technical Breakdown Signals Sell-on-Rallies Toward $4,000 
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Gold's Rate Cut Rally: Will the Fed Play Along?
Gold hits fresh all-time high as demand for safe-haven assets increases. It hits an all-time high at $3086 and is currently trading around $3071.
The US economy is also blended: Q4 GDP expanded 2.4% on a 4% increase in consumer spending, taking the expansion for 2024 to 2.8%. Pending home sales increased 2.0% in February 2025, the first gain in three months, and initial jobless claims for the week of March 22, 2025, declined to 224,000, showing a stable labor market amid economic uncertainty
Rate Pause Expectations Rise
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause in May 19th 2025 meeting have increased to 88.40% from 85.70% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding above short term moving average 34 EMA and 55 EMA and above long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4 hour chart. Immediate support is at $2995 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $2985/$2956/$2920/$2900/$2880. The near-term resistance is at $3086 (trend line joining $2450 and $2790) with potential price targets at $3100/$3125.
It is good to sell on rallies around $3085-86 with a stop-loss at $3100 for a target price of $2835.
