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Gamma ownership in EUR and USD against EMFX space is rendering lucrative options on central bank meetings (c.f. BoE), and in vega-neutral steepener format along steep vol curves.
EURNZD gamma is still good value on RBNZ’s status; +2M/-6M calendars in EURTRY and USDMXN screen cheap.
EURNZD is the NZD-cross that screens the best value in gamma to benefit from such a turn of events (refer above chart; 2W ATM 8.1 vs. hourly realized vol 1-wk 9.0, 4-wk 9.5) and is worth holding into the event.
Directional plays for a tactical NZD bounce could take the form of either 1M 1.64 EUR put/NZD call one touch (5X gearing off spot ref. 1.6815) or 1M 1.671.65 put spread (3.5X).
High carry and chronic risk-reversal underperformance suggest value in at-expiry digital risk-reversals in EURRUB to benefit from higher oil prices.
Carry/vol ratios in long-dated TRY options are testing 2008’s record highs.
Liquidity permitting, long-dated EURTRY straddles are worth owning against a bullish EM portfolio.
