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We think the idiosyncratic drivers for both ZAR (political uncertainty ahead of ANC leadership contest in December) and RUB (central bank's response to persistent currency strength) are likely to remain in the background for now.
As such, a potential bounce in metals and oil prices in coming weeks, after a 5-10% correction since the start of March, should help support these currencies.
In South Africa, even if the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) repeated in its press statement following the January meeting that the rate hike cycle may be coming to an end, expectations of this already being the case at the coming meeting in late March may well be premature. This is what recent comments by central bank President Kganyago suggest. These have to be seen against the background of recent political quarrels within the ANC as well as between President Zuma and Finance Minister Gordhan.
They center on money matters: the weak economy urgently needs support and the ANC wants to give the President more (fiscal policy) scope, which is being restricted by two factors: weak growth caused tax revenue to collapse during the past fiscal year.
In Turkey, we think the main idiosyncratic driver remains the referendum on constitutional amendments in April.
For now, the other main concern of investors in Turkey –the stance of monetary policy –has likely been alleviated after the CBRT raised the marginal cost of funding (late liquidity window) by 75bp to 11.75% on Thursday, 16 March. We think TRY will trade with risk until much closer to the referendum.
