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FxWirePro: Inventory Check, Driving Forces, and Hedging Possibilities of Brent and WTI Crude Oil

The U.S. stockpiles and U.S. crude oil production's return to its record 12.3 million barrels per day. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported crude-oil inventories dropped by around 300,000 barrels last week, to 476.49 million barrels.

As a result, the crude prices have gone under pressure from a much smaller-than-expected decline, Brent crude has dropped to $63.09, and is currently pairing those loses to the current $63.72 level, while WTI is attempting to bounce back at $55.41 levels.

The other driving forces of crude prices are: 

Trump’s administration has pulled off a shocker by choosing not to renew any waiver on Iranian oil sanctions, while most of the market analysts expected quite a few other sanctioned countries to receive an upliftment of waivers.

Iran exported 1.3m bpd in March – the onus is now on the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia to pick up the slack.

Contemplating the recent development, the odds of OPEC + continuing its supply curtailing program into 2H’2019 looks very slim.

Updates on crude oil derivatives trades: In crude oil segment, we initiated a risk reversal strategy by going long in Brent Dec’19 10D call versus short Dec’19 10D put. They also went tactically short Brent-Dubai Q3’19 swap spread due to mounting risks from Iran sanctions. 

Currently, at spot reference of WTI: $55.25 levels, as the market tone is troublesome, we note that the continued decline in crude oil with WTI testing fresh lows in the minor trend and threatening below $55/bbl that makes the commodity-driven currencies also vulnerable.

Hence, we wish to activate WTI crude directional hedge, by adding shorts CME WTI futures for June delivery for arresting downside risks in short-run, simultaneously, go long in CME WTI futures of August’2019 month deliveries. Courtesy: JPM

Currency strength index: FxWirePro's hourly EUR spot index is inching towards 23 levels (which is mildly bullish), while hourly USD spot index was at 70 (bullish) while articulating (at 10:29 GMT). 

For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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