FxWirePro: Is it sense of optimism from China for industrial metals?

Having bottomed out in early 2016 after five successive years of falls, the metals index (LMEX) has rebounded by around 35%.

With the exception of nickel, uptrends remain in place for most metals. We highlight several factors reflecting improving fundamentals for the base metals complex.

As metals prices, for the most part, have formed bases on the charts, we look for the complex to work higher over the course of 2H'2017.

In China, the latest activity data confirms that the economy has stabilized and settled at about a 6.5% pace.

In the Chinese physical metals markets, indicators are also pointing to a stable economy. Inventories are sliding lower (in fact, Chinese ‘visible’ copper inventories dipped below their five-year averages), Chinese physical metals prices are largely trading at a premium to the listed exchange prices, scrap discounts are narrowing and premiums for imported metal are inching higher.

The momentum is present in all four industrial metals under our coverage. This is despite the fact that Chinese macro data peaked in 1Q and leading metals demand indicators like fixed asset investment, property data and auto sales have rolled over.

China's aluminum output reached 13.8Mt in Jan-May 2017, up 11% yoy. Product exports rising.

China refined metal imports in Jan-May reach 41kt, up 33% yoy.

China manufacturing PMI stronger in June, while supply problems persist - Escondida output falling.

In the very near-term we continue to see conditions in place that warrant being positioned long in some markets and we maintain our tactical long trading recommendations for zinc and aluminum while opting to take profit on our long copper trade. Also supporting this view is that anecdotally we understand that Chinese credit conditions are not as tight as they had been a month ago and that recently it has become easier to open letters of credit.

The main risk to our long positions is the bearish outlook on China for the second half of the year, a view that by now has become a consensus. The upside risk, on other hand, is that if current growth stability in China stretches into the second half of the year when consensus expects growth to dip, this will lend a lot of unforeseen support to base metals prices.