Japan recorded a 513.5 JPY billion surplus in July of 2016, compared to a 261.39 JPY billion deficit a year earlier and beating market consensus of a 283.7 JPY billion surplus, as exports fell less than imports.
Year-on-year, sales dropped by 14.0 pct to 5,728.41 JPY billion in July, following a 7.4 pct fall in June and in line with estimates.
Imports decreased by 24.7 pct to 5,214.90 JPY billion, compared to an 18.8 pct decrease in a month earlier while market expected a 20.6 pct drop.
On the flip side, the jobless rate in New Zealand fell to 5.1 pct in the second quarter of 2016 from a downwardly revised 5.2 pct in the previous period and below market expectations of 5.3 pct.
Employment increased by 2.4 pct, partially reflecting improvements to the Household Labour Force Survey, including better identification of self-employed people.
Currency Option Strategy: NZD/JPY Short Put Ladder
Rationale: Unlimited downside and limited upside profit potential and higher IVs favor option holders of this options strategy to mitigate downside risks.
1m ATM IVs are trending higher at 12.35% which means the market thinks the price has a potential for large movement in either direction.
But technically, more downside traction is foreseen in the weeks to come as the current prices on weekly charts are well below 7&21EMAs with leading oscillators to signal selling momentum.
How to execute: Short 1W (1%) ITM put option and simultaneously add longs in 1M ATM -0.49 delta put option and one more 2M (1%) OTM -0.35 delta put option.
Large unlimited profits could be achieved should the underlying exchange rate of NZDJPY makes a vivid downswings below the lower BEP, maximum returns are limited to the extent of initial credit received if the NZDJPY rallies above the upper breakeven point (BEP).
Since the short put ladder is an unrestricted return with partial risk bearing strategy that is deployed because, in addition to the puzzling uptrend in a short term and downtrend in the long-term, we think that the NZDJPY would also perceive significant volatility in the near term.


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