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The EURJPY volatility surface is currently offering very attractive shorting opportunities, as ATM volatility is rich and 6m/1y skews are excessively priced. Here, we recommend a couple of trades taking advantage of both the volatility and skew premiums.
In the volatility space, going short a 6m variance swap provides extremely high-profit odds. EURJPY 6m realized volatility has spent 78% and 89% of the time below the current variance swap bid level since 2007 and 2011 respectively.
We keep our EURJPY bullish bias as a directional reflation trade, which can be advantageously expressed via a zero-cost 6m topside seagull strikes 114/123.5/128.
Volatility trade: go short EURJPY 6m variance swap @14.3 (EUR indicative bid).
Trade risks: 6m realized volatility below 14.3 in 6m. Investors receive or pay the squared difference between the 14.3 strike and the terminal realized volatility and face unlimited losses if realized volatility is beyond this strike level.
Directional trade: Buy EURJPY 6m topside seagull strikes 114/123.5/128 Zero cost (indicative offer, spot ref: 123.1715).
Trade risks: unlimited below 114. The structure is buying a standard call spread strikes 123.5/118 fully financed by selling a put strike 114. As such, investors face unlimited downside risk at the expiry if EURJPY trades below 114.
