FxWirePro: NZD/USD Daily Outlook

Chart - Courtesy Trading View 

Spot Analysis:

NZD/USD was trading largely muted at 0.6194 at around 09:40 GMT

Previous Week's High/ Low: 0.6294/ 0.6167

Previous Session's High/ Low: 0.6253/ 0.6191

Fundamental Overview:

Antipodeans remained on the defensive on Monday as concerns about a global credit crunch weighed on commodities.

Markets are still priced for at least one more hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to 4.75%, but now doubt its will reach its projected target of 5.5%.

US data released on Friday showed Durable Goods Orders for February dropped by 1.0% versus January's fall of 5% (revised from -4.5%) and the market expectation for an increase of 0.6%.

Also, preliminary readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March came in firmer at 49.3 from 47.3 in February, versus 47.0 expected, while Services PMI rose to 53.8 from 50.6 prior and 50.5 expected. 

The S&P Global's Composite PMI increased to 53.3 from 50.1 in February, versus 50.1 market forecasts.

On Friday, the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council said the U.S. banking system was "sound and resilient" despite stress on some institutions.

However, investors remain wary, assess moves made by authorities and regulators to rein in worries over the global banking system.

Looking forward, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index in focus for impetus.

Technical Analysis:

- NZD/USD remains capped below 5-DMA

- Momentum bearish, stochs and RSI are biased lower

- Price action is below 200H MA

- GMMA indicator shows major and minor trend are bearish on the intraday charts

Major Support and Resistance Levels:

Support - 0.6157 (200-DMA), Resistance - 0.6214 (21-EMA)

Summary: NZD/USD slips lower from session highs at 0.6211. The major is on track to test 200-DMA at 0.6157.