FxWirePro: NZD/USD upside pauses shy of 21-EMA, decisive break above required for upside continuation

Chart - Courtesy Trading View 

Spot Analysis:

NZD/USD was trading 0.47% lower on the day at 0.5710 at around 11:40 GMT

Previous Week's High/ Low: 0.5754/ 0.5564

Previous Session's High/ Low: 0.5805/ 0.5660

Fundamental Overview:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a fifth consecutive 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike on Wednesday.

RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate (OCR) has now been pushed to 3.5% and more hikes are also expected.

Further, commentary from New Zealand Deputy PM and FM Grant Robertson on monetary policy and exchange value keeps the kiwi supported.

On the other side, focus is now on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, due Friday. The consensus for the payroll data is indicating a decline to 250k vs. the prior release of 315k. 

Further, hawkish comments by Fed officials reaffirmed expectations that the US central bank will tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace and continues to act as a tailwind for the USD.

Technical Analysis:

- NZD/USD trades capped between 21-EMA and 5-DMA

- Back-to-back Doji formation on the previous two sessions dents upside

- Price action has paused shy of 21-EMA and the pair has slipped below 0.58 handle

- The pair is trading below cloud and major moving averages, Chikou span is biased lower

Major Support and Resistance Levels:

Support - 0.5697 (5-DMA), Resistance - 0.5825 (21-EMA)

Summary: NZD/USD upside capped below 21-EMA. Major trend in the pair is bearish. Near-term trend change only above 21-EMA.