Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
BOJ Raises Interest Rates to 31-Year High, Signals Strong Focus on Inflation Risks 
Indonesia Central Bank to Draft New Regulations After Expanded Economic Growth Mandate 
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Policy Overhaul as Hawkish Rate Outlook Rattles Markets 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
BOJ Raises Interest Rates to 1% as Inflation Pressures Persist 
Kevin Warsh Faces Early Fed Test as Inflation Risks Challenge Rate-Cut Expectations 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates as Energy Shock Fuels Eurozone Inflation Concerns 
China’s Growth Faces Structural Challenges Amid Doubts Over Data 
New Zealand Unemployment and Inflation Debate Intensifies Ahead of 2026 Election 
Hungarian MPC meeting went more or less as we had expected: the central bank reiterated that it was ready to gradually normalize monetary policy, depending on the persistence of the inflation trend – the MPC but did not communicate anything more concrete than that. In fact, the MPC left its guidance unchanged.
We recommended a 6m EURHUF 326/340 call spread in the past. The subsequent hawkish signal by the NBH took us by surprise, but we believe EURHUF at current levels is too optimistic regarding the NBH’s underlying desire to tighten policy.
We also remain fundamentally bearishly inclined given extremely low real yields, fast deterioration in the current account deficit and the export nature of the economy.
We thus take the opportunity to restructure the call spread into an outright call. This restructuring would allow us to benefit more directly from a potential rise in vols in the region from currently excessively low levels. The restructuring comes a 10bps cost. Courtesy: JPM
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly EUR spot index is inching towards 4 levels (which is neutral), while hourly USD spot index was at 42 (bullish) while articulating (at 13:37 GMT).
For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
