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The headwinds we highlighted last week for EM FX remain; negative EM political news flow is high, US tax reform discussions continue to provide upside USD risk, and EM FX positioning remains crowded even though outflows are picking up. As such, we add to our bearish stance and move underweight TRY, leaving us underweight in EMEA EM FX overall.
We encourage UW in the JPM’s GBI-EM Model Portfolio with an UW in ZAR and TRY vs. OW in RUB, and OW in PLN and CZK hedged against UW in RON. We also buy a 2m 4.10 USDTRY call option in outright trades.
Outright trades:
08-Jan-18 USDTRY call (4.10), spot reference: 3.8856
Short ZAR vs basket (0.5 EUR, 0.5 USD)
Short EURCZK spot reference: 25.55
Long ILS vs. basket (0.5 EUR, 0.5 USD) spot reference: 4.1460 (EURILS), 3.5101 (USDILS)
01-Mar-18 EURHUF downside seagull (Long put spread (304, 297), short call (312)), spot reference: 311.720.
