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Crude oil prices have pointed southwards of late, with WTI prices falling from its $74/bbl high to its $69/bbl handle in the recent week. Supply upside risks given higher OPEC and US oil production into 2H18 are effective price drags. The OPEC cartel has decided to raise oil production into 2H’18.
Even though oil prices received a boost on Friday, June 22 after OPEC announced the release of 1mbd, OPEC- NOPEC clarified on Saturday, June 23 that the 1mbd will be delivered and it was not allocated based on any quotas per country and will not be lower than otherwise communicated by some countries after the meeting on Friday.
An announcement of 1mbd is bearish as it solidifies the standpoints that fundamentals would be weaker by end of this year. Finally, we still suspect the likelihood of survival of a deal remains low in the near future as countries like Libya and Nigeria have not even made any cuts as most other members have, making some members “passengers” in this OPEC-NOPEC accord.
Some members, particularly Saudi Arabia, have steadily increased their value-added oil product exports in lieu of reduced crude exports, making up for some of the losses from the cuts in crude exports after the deal. Changing dynamics concerning Iran would keep bringing to the fore the cooperation between OPEC members.
Hence compliance is very likely to fall well below 100% henceforth as otherwise assumed by OPEC-NOPEC.
Stay short NYMEX WTI for September 2018 delivery and long NYMEX WTI trade for October 2018 at $1.43/bbl. Target of $0.5/bbl and stop loss of $2.4/bbl. MTM on 31stJuly at $1.18/bbl, for an unrealized gain of $0.25/bbl, or 0.36% of the underlying. Courtesy: JPM
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index is inching towards 98 levels (which is bullish), while articulating (at 13:01 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
