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In the US, despite the good economic backdrop, equity volatility has moved into oversold territory, and we illustrate this with a number of examples including an analysis of the business cycle. We advise caution in the short vol trade but think a comeback of the reflation theme could extend the low vol environment.
In Europe – Fading political risks call for a benign vol environment. Relatively better valuations, improving macro data, fading political risk, slowly normalizing inflation expectations and still-accommodative central bank policy has all contributed to lower vol in European equities. We recommend buying upside through options.
More upside in Europe with risks in Italy fading Buy Eurotsoxx50 Sep17 3600 call for 2% premium (either outright or as an equity replacement) Risk limited to premium paid upfront.
FX to bear the brunt of Brexit, Large caps to remain mostly immune Short (1 time) FTSE Dec-17 variance swap at 15.1, Long (1.7 times) EURGBP Dec-17 variance swap at 8.5. Risks limited to the strike on long EURGBP variance swap, unlimited on the short FTSE variance swap.
NKY options are cheap enough to buy an outright call Long Dec17 NKY Dec17 105% call for 2.2% premium Risks limited to the premium paid upfront.
Take advantage of extremely low short-term variance swap on NKY, long Sep17 NKY var swap at 16.9v, Short AS51 Sep17 var swap at 14.2v Risks on the long NKY leg limited to the strike. Risks on the short AS51 leg are theoretically unlimited.
Positioning for further upside in Korean equities, we encourage longs in KOSPI2 Dec17 101%-106% call spread financed by shorting USDKRW Dec17 1100 put.
Alternative implementation: Long KOSPI2 Dec17 102% call contingent on USDKRW above 1100 Risks on KOSPI2 call spread limited to the premium paid up front, risk on short USDKRW put theoretically unlimited. Risks on the alternate implementation limited to the premium paid upfront.
