USD/RUB is approximately remained stagnant or a little higher in June following CBR rate cuts and flattish crude prices in a $63-65/bbl range. The CBR cut its key rate 100bp to 11.5% as expected, but the more interesting comments for the currency related to FX reserves.
New comments on FX reserves suggest that a target of $500bn may be reached at a slower pace than originally expressed (5-7years now instead of 3-5 years), which means less pressure on the currency over the long-run.
However, USD purchases have remained in the $100-200 mn range this month, which should keep the negative pressure on the RUB over the summer without a material rebound in crude oil prices.
We suggest holding our last recommendation, 3M USD call/RUB put 1x1 call spreads (55, 61) to express a modestly bearish short-term view on the ruble.
