FxWirePro- USDCHF Daily Outlook

USDCHF recovered above 0.9500 after a massive sell-off. The demand for safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc has an escalation of tension between Russia and Ukraine and board-based US dollar weakness. The US dollar index lost more than 500 pips as the chance of an aggressive rate hike by the Fed diminished.

.  US October housing starts declined by 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1425K from the previous month's 1493K. Building permits fell 2.4% in Oct, compared to a 1.4% contraction in Sep.  The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits eased to 222K for the week ended on Nov 11th vs the forecast of 225K.

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Dec dropped to 80.6% from 85.4% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield lost more than 13% after hitting a high of 4.244%. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -68 basis points from -57 bpbs.

 Technically in the hourly chart, the pair is holding above short-term (21 EMA), 55 EMA, and below long-term 200 EMA (0.95920). Any break above 0.9600 confirms further bullishness; a jump to 0.9660/0.9700 is possible.

 The near-term support is around 0.9480, any breach below targets is 0.9400/0.9370. 

Indicators (4 Hour chart)

CCI (50) - Bullish

ADX- Bearish

It is good to buy on dips around 0.9500 with SL around 0.9450 for the TP of 0.96000.