FxWirePro: USDINR trades steady on FII outflows and surge in crude oil prices, good to buy on dips

The Indian rupee trades weak as the global stock market tumbles due to the escalation of tension in the Middle East.  It hit a high of  84 yesterday and is currently trading around 83.97.

US Non-farm Payroll -

US economy has added 254000 jobs in Sep from 142000 previous month, well above the forecast of 147000. Unemployment rate declined to 4.1% vs. Estimate 4.2%.

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m- Actual: 0.4% v Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.4%

Geo-Political tension -

Hamas attacked Israel once again. Hamas armed wing said that it attacked Israel’s Tel Aviv with a missile salvo. The escalation of geopolitical tension has pushed crude oil prices higher which is negative for Indian Rupee.

US dollar index-

US dollar index was one of the best performers the previous week as upbeat jobs data decreased the chance of a 50 bpbs rate cut by the Fed in the November meeting. 

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Nov increased to 96.90% from 46.70% a week ago.

Major Indian Economic data -

India CPI (Aug) - 3.60% vs. Forecast of 3.65%

Food inflation- 5.66 vs. 5.42 Y/Y

The HSBC India Services PMI dropped to a 10-month low of 57.7 in Sep from 60.9 the previous month, below the forecast of 58.90.

FII Outflows-

FII sold record-high equities worth 152.43 billion on Thursday. So far in Oct FII has sold shares worth 307.2 billion.

Technicals-

Major resistance- 84.25

Near-term resistance - 84

Minor support-  83.60, 83.25

Trend reversal level- 83

it is good to buy on dips around 83.60 with SL around 83.25 for a TP of 84.25