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The Indian rupee trades weak as the global stock market tumbles due to the escalation of tension in the Middle East. It hit a high of 84 yesterday and is currently trading around 83.97.
US Non-farm Payroll -
US economy has added 254000 jobs in Sep from 142000 previous month, well above the forecast of 147000. Unemployment rate declined to 4.1% vs. Estimate 4.2%.
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m- Actual: 0.4% v Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.4%
Geo-Political tension -
Hamas attacked Israel once again. Hamas armed wing said that it attacked Israel’s Tel Aviv with a missile salvo. The escalation of geopolitical tension has pushed crude oil prices higher which is negative for Indian Rupee.
US dollar index-
US dollar index was one of the best performers the previous week as upbeat jobs data decreased the chance of a 50 bpbs rate cut by the Fed in the November meeting.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Nov increased to 96.90% from 46.70% a week ago.
Major Indian Economic data -
India CPI (Aug) - 3.60% vs. Forecast of 3.65%
Food inflation- 5.66 vs. 5.42 Y/Y
The HSBC India Services PMI dropped to a 10-month low of 57.7 in Sep from 60.9 the previous month, below the forecast of 58.90.
FII Outflows-
FII sold record-high equities worth 152.43 billion on Thursday. So far in Oct FII has sold shares worth 307.2 billion.
Technicals-
Major resistance- 84.25
Near-term resistance - 84
Minor support- 83.60, 83.25
Trend reversal level- 83
it is good to buy on dips around 83.60 with SL around 83.25 for a TP of 84.25
