Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Policy Overhaul as Hawkish Rate Outlook Rattles Markets 
Indian Government Bonds Seen Opening Steady Ahead of RBI Policy Decision 
Indonesia Central Bank to Draft New Regulations After Expanded Economic Growth Mandate 
ECB Set to Raise Interest Rates as Energy Shock Fuels Eurozone Inflation Concerns 
BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Rise as Weak Yen and Strong U.S. Jobs Data Increase Pressure 
RBA Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 4.35% as Markets Watch AUD/USD and ASX 200 
BOJ Raises Interest Rates to 1% as Inflation Pressures Persist 
Kevin Warsh Faces Early Fed Test as Inflation Risks Challenge Rate-Cut Expectations 
RBI Hits Pause as Geopolitical Storm Clouds Gather 
Taiwan Central Bank Likely to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged Through 2027 
This week saw a significant shift in Fed rhetoric, seemingly on growing concerns over an overshoot of full employment, leading markets to price in a significantly higher probability of a hike in the next meeting in March and an underperformance in US bonds.
We update our regular positioning indicators and find that investor positioning appears significantly cleaner since end-Jan, suggesting a reduced risk of position unwinds exacerbating market moves in the near term.
In the Euro area, we retain a bias for higher yields and steeper curves in Germany but stay tactically neutral given the speed of the sell-off.
Hold 2Yx2Y/15Yx15Y swap curve steepeners, and 2s/10s weighted bear steepeners. Enter 1Y swap/ Jun17 Bobl bull flatteners. Receive Jun18 ECB OIS. Keep reds/blues weighted bear steepeners and Bund/Buxl swap spread curve flattener.
Enter Jun17 Bund swap spread bear widener. In vol, hold Schatz/Bund vol curve steepener, stay long Jun17 bund gamma via OTM calls, but stop out of long 3Mx10Y gamma.
Intra-Euro area, spreads are tighter on reduced political risk, though we continue to see the tail risk of a Le Pen presidency warranting cheap downside protection. Add short 3Y Netherlands vs. Finland and 2s/10s Italy flattener vs. Germany.
In the UK, We see valuations too rich, and stick with a bearish view: stay short 10Y gilts and hold 1Yx1Y/15Y GBP swap curve steepeners. Enter Jun17/Sep17 Short Sterling steepener boxed against Jun17/Sep17 Euribor flattener and keep reds/greens SONIA curve steepener.
Hold paying 10Yx10Y GBP vs. EUR swaps.
In Japan, receive 1Y USD/JPY cross currency basis, hold longs in the 5s/10s/20s JGB curve fly.
Next week’ key events: ECB, RBA; UK Spring Budget, US nonfarm payrolls.
