God on their side: how the US, Israel and Iran are all using religion to garner support 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
Time to buy local: war fuel price shocks reveal the folly of a long food supply chain 
Urban studies: Doing research when every city is different 
U.S. Strikes on Iran Draw War Crimes Warnings from International Law Scholars 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
Meta and Google just lost a landmark social media addiction case. A tech law expert explains the fallout 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Ahead of today’s EIA’s inventory check, let’s just glance through the demand/supply equation of crude oil.
Crude and product demand seems to be solid. Seasonal crude draws expected in coming weeks. US crude demand at/near winter peak, but product demand lukewarm. Watch margins.
4w average production to 01 Dec was about 9.71 Mb/d. Final Sept output +290 kb/d vs. Aug, due to recovery after Harvey. EIA Dec STEO: US crude supply growth +760 kb/d YoY in 4Q17 and +780 kb/d YoY in 2018.
On balance, we envisage that the cuts are maintained at current levels in June, but that prices will weaken in anticipation of uncertainty ahead of the meeting.
We assume that OPEC will agree in June or possibly in November to extend the cuts through to the end of 1q2019, much as the current agreement was originally designed to expire at the end of 1q2018.
Looking at the risk management by 42 US producers, in 2018, US producers appear better hedged same time this year compared to 2017 levels. In terms of pricing, there were more volumes hedged between $49- 52/bbl WTI.
We have kept our US liquids supply growth target modest for 2018 close to +950 kbd on the back of an oil price recovery. The risk of US oil returning significantly versus a slower growth is still very much a strong function of price which will very much depend on what OPEC-NOPEC do in 2018.
As we’ve been seeing the price band of WTI crude prices are oscillating between $41.79 ad $59 and could foresee the range likely to prolong in the near run, it is wise to avoid near-term hedging using futures of near month tenors and simultaneously, use dips to deploy long hedges using forward contracts, we advocate adding longs in mid-month futures with a view to arresting upside risks.
