Gold Market Navigates a Turbulent Week: Will the Bulls Regain Control?

Gold's Wild Ride: CPI, Tariffs, and Geopolitics Shake the Market

Previous week was a rollercoaster for gold prices. Several things happened, including US CPI and PPI, reciprocal tariffs from other countries, and geopolitical events. It hit a low of $2877 and is currently trading around $2897.

Retail Sales Signal Potential Slowdown

In January 2025, U.S. retail business sales declined 0.9% seasonally adjusted from December, a larger decrease than expected. Although this was a dip, retail sales were 4.2% above a year ago, not seasonally adjusted. Core retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, and food services declined by 0.9% month-to-month but rose by 4% from January 2024. Sales in particular industries such as motor vehicles rose by 6.4%, while food service locations registered a 5.4% increase from last year. Overall trends reflect an impending decline in consumer spending after a strong holiday season

Rate Pause Sentiments Climb

According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause in the Mar 19th 2025 meeting have increased to 97.50% up from 92% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy

Gold prices are holding above short-term moving averages 34 EMA and 55 EMA and long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $2875 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $2860/$2850/$2830/$2800/$2770/$2740. The near-term resistance is at $2920, with potential price targets at $2945/$2957/$3000.

It is good to buy on dips around $2850 with a stop-loss at $2830 for a target price of $2955.