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Gold prices moved higher on Monday, recovering slightly after their steepest weekly decline since June, as weak U.S. employment data reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Elevated Treasury yields and persistent energy inflation risks, however, limited bullion’s gains.
Spot gold (XAU/USD) rose 0.3% to $4,153.66 an ounce as of 20:40 ET (00:40 GMT), following a 3.4% decline last week. Silver (XAG/USD) gained 1.3% to $61.15 after tumbling more than 6% last week, its biggest weekly drop since mid-July. Platinum and palladium also advanced, while the U.S. dollar remained broadly steady after three consecutive weekly gains.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, missing market expectations and signaling weaker momentum in the labor market. The disappointing jobs report reduced pressure on the Fed to raise borrowing costs quickly despite persistent inflation concerns.
Markets now assign roughly a 20% probability to an October Fed rate hike, sharply lower than about 70% a week earlier. Lower expectations for higher interest rates typically support gold because the precious metal offers no yield.
Gold remains under pressure following a decline of more than 6% in September, its worst monthly performance since June. Investors have been concerned that energy-driven inflation could force U.S. interest rates to remain elevated for longer.
Attention will now turn to minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, when policymakers raised interest rates for the first time in three years. The minutes, due this week, could offer fresh clues about the central bank’s policy outlook.
Inflation risks remain elevated as oil prices stay high amid escalating Middle East tensions, including a Saudi-backed military offensive against Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remain near multi-decade highs, increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion. ANZ analysts said weaker employment data and reduced Fed hike expectations are supporting gold, although high bond yields and renewed energy inflation risks continue to constrain further gains.
