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Gold holds above $3000 as demand for safe-haven assets increases. It hit a fresh all-time high of $3044.83 and is currently trading around $3030.
Fed on Pause: Interest Rates Expected to Hold Steady
The Federal Reserve on March 19, 2025, will leave interest rates steady, and the target band of 4.25% to 4.5% will be upheld. Market opinion is one to tread carefully, and the Fed is extremely sensitive to economic reports as well as the probable impact of the Trump administration's policies. New economic projections, like the "dot plot," will provide policymakers' projections more clarity on future rate movements, inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth. Though short-term reductions are not on the horizon, the probability of reductions at some point during the remainder of 2025 is not excluded and will hinge on economic progress and follow-through figures, and two or three reductions during the second half of the year are expected by markets; the words of Chair Powell following the meeting will be pivotal in determining the stance of the Fed and how it reacts to shifting economic conditions, specifically recent upticks in PCE inflation
Rate Pause Expectations Rise
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause on the Mar 19th 2025 meeting have increased to 99% from 98% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding above short-term moving averages of 34 EMA and 55 EMA and long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $2995 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $2975/$2956/$2920/$2900/$2880. The near-term resistance is at $3030, with potential price targets at $3050/$3100.
It is good to buy on dips around $3000 with a stop-loss at $2975 for a target price of $3100.
