Greece's next real deadline is end-June

The decision to bundle all the IMF payments in June into one looks like a political decision, a signal that PM Tsipras is not ready to risk (yet) a split in his own party. Indeed, with the more radical part of Syriza in stark opposition to the creditors' proposal, he had no choice but to reject the deal and be true to his word (no deal, no IMF payments). 

As a result, the IMF payment deadline will now coincide with the end of the programme. With no market or payment pressure over the next few weeks, 30 June is now the next key date on the agenda. Negotiations are expected to resume over the next few days, with Greece said to be expected to send a counter-offer by 8 June and the next Eurogroup meeting taking place on 18 June, states Societe Generale. 

However, these negotiations are unlikely to allow significant progress for a final deal. A last minute agreement appears much more likely. In theory, the programme could be extended by a few months, without reaching a deal, as was the case in February, adds SocGen. However, a failure to reach an agreement would imply a default on the IMF AND the ECB. To be consistent, PM Tsipras would then have no choice but to contemplate Grexit, which would in all likelihood trigger early elections.

The pace of deposit outflows and the ECB decision on ELA's size and collateral haircut will also be key. While the next one is officially on 17 June, an ECB non-monetary policy meeting is likely to take place this week. At this meeting, the ECB will review its stance on Greek banks' ELA financing - both in terms of size and conditions. 

Despite the delay of the IMF payment, the ECB is highly unlikely to cut the ELA, as the conditions required are that banks be solvent and have adequate collateral. As the bundling of IMF payments does not constitute a default and as long as the value of the Greek debt is not significantly reduced, the ECB should decide to keep the current haircut unchanged. However, should they decide otherwise and/or should deposit outflows accelerate further, the situation could rapidly deteriorate. Greek banks have around €30-40bn of unused collateral available for ELA, i.e. they should be able to sustain deposit outflows of this size, on an unchanged haircut, baring that the ECB raises the ELA ceiling, added SocGen.